Russia increases threats to stop US from approving Ukrainian use of US-provided ATACMS in Kursk region – ISW

Russian officials are resorting to new threats to deter the United States from permitting Ukraine to fire ATACMS missiles deep into the Russian Federation.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that

According to military experts, the Kremlin is concerned about the possibility of Ukraine using ATACMS missiles to launch limited strikes on Russian and North Korean targets in the Kursk region.

Such permission from the United States, according to analysts, would be a response to the increased participation of North Korean troops in Russia's war against Ukraine.

"This US authorization, if officially confirmed, would notably be a mild response to Russia's escalatory introduction of North Korean troops as active combatants in Russia's invasion of Ukraine," the ISW stressed.

In turn, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on November 18 that the US authorization to use ATACMS missiles would be a "new round of tension" and a "qualitative change" in Washington's involvement in the war. He accused the US of "adding fuel to the fire" and repeated the threatening rhetoric previously voiced by Vladimir Putin on September 12 that Ukrainian strikes on Russia using Western-supplied weapons would mean an escalation and directly draw Western countries into the war.

Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, also stressed that strikes by Ukrainian forces on Russia using Western weapons would "fundamentally change the essence and character" of the war and that the Russian response would be "adequate and tangible."

"Select Russian officials and propagandists heavily emphasized that US officials have not yet formally confirmed the ATACMS strike authorization, likely in an attempt to convince the United States to back out of the decision and deny the media reports of the authorization," the analysts noted.

Key ISW findings as of November 18:

• Putin's introduction of North Korea as a new belligerent in his invasion of Ukraine was a major escalation. Allowing Ukraine to use US missiles against legitimate military targets in Russian territory in accordance with all international laws and laws of armed conflict is a very limited response. It cannot reasonably be characterized as an escalation in itself.
• French and British sources clarified on November 18 that the reported US permissions regarding Ukraine's ability to use ATACMS for limited strikes within Russia do not inherently extend to Ukraine's ability to use French and UK-provided SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles for long-range strikes in Russia.
• The Kremlin continues to state its unwillingness to accept any compromises, including those that would "freeze" the conflict along the current frontline – further demonstrating the Kremlin's insistence on complete Ukraine capitulation.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region, Kupiansk, west of Kreminna, and in the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar directions.
• The Kremlin is continuing to militarize different levels of the Russian government by expanding the "Time of Heroes" program that aims to place veterans of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in positions in local, regional, and federal governments.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) illegally conscripted Ukrainian youth in the occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions as part of Russia's Fall 2024 conscription cycle.