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16:49 03 Nov 2024

Trump's Ukraine war plans could spell trouble for Putin — WP

US presidential candidate Donald Trump's proposed plans to end the war in Ukraine may face resistance from Russia, presenting a potential challenge for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

According to Rubryka, citing The Washington Post, the upcoming US election is critical for the Kremlin, as both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky face growing pressure from the prolonged conflict, which is nearing the three-year mark.

While Trump's candidacy aligns with some Russian interests—particularly his criticisms of US spending on Ukraine—an anonymous Russian official told The Washington Post that the election outcome may not drastically alter US-Russia relations, which he described as "at an impasse." He noted that this standoff has left all parties, "even Putin," without clear options.

The publication suggests that Trump's potential victory could still pose risks for Russia. Former Trump advisors, Fred Fleitz and Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, have proposed a plan involving a ceasefire along the current front lines, with Ukraine pressured into peace talks to maintain Western support. This proposal, which effectively cedes territory to Russia, has drawn criticism but is seen by analysts as an undesirable scenario for Putin, who ultimately seeks to control all of Ukraine, not just territory.

Analysts believe that US-Russia talks over Ukraine, even under a Trump administration, may stall, as Trump is unlikely to offer Putin the concessions he wants in Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed his concerns about Trump's possible approach to ending the war, saying the new US president's stance could either bolster or weaken support for Ukraine. Weakening that support, he warned, would embolden Russia to seize more territory and could prevent a Ukrainian victory. Zelensky emphasized that the goal isn't territorial compromise but finding diplomatic solutions that align with US policy, provided it remains firm.

Trump, who has positioned himself as someone eager to "make a deal" to quickly end the war, previously outlined a proposal that included a "frozen conflict" model. This plan suggests autonomous regions on either side of a demilitarized zone, keeping Kyiv out of NATO. Trump also claimed he had once warned Putin against invading Ukraine and pledged to work toward peace if he wins the election.

In September, during a meeting with Trump, Zelensky presented his vision for Ukrainian victory—a plan also shown to President Joe Biden and candidate Kamala Harris. Trump later expressed his intention to visit Ukraine and stated that he and Zelensky share a desire to end the war.

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