North Korean troop deployment matches Russia's weekly losses at the front – ISW
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North Korean troops are unlikely to provide Russia with a long-term solution to its manpower issues if they suffer casualties at rates similar to Russian forces.
This information comes from Rubryka, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
According to American analysts, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin reported that Russian forces are currently incurring over 1,200 casualties per day (or roughly 36,000 per month), while recent US estimates show that Russia is recruiting only about 25,000 to 30,000 new soldiers per month.
This means that Russia cannot replace its current front-line losses at a 1:1 ratio.
"The 8,000 North Korean soldiers reportedly preparing to enter combat in the Kursk region thus represent about one week's worth of casualties across the entire frontline. North Korea has committed an estimated total of 12,000 troops to Russia," ISW experts highlighted.
It remains unclear how exactly Moscow intends to use North Korean troops in combat, but if they are engaged in the high-casualty operations typical of Russian forces, significant losses among North Korean soldiers are likely.
The ISW suggests that North Korea may have joined the conflict to gain combat experience in modern warfare. However, the value of this experience will depend largely on how the Russian command utilizes North Korean forces.
If North Korean casualties reach the same high levels as those of Russian soldiers, the opportunity to acquire valuable combat experience will be severely limited. In such a scenario, it is unlikely that Kim Jong-un would agree to a prolonged involvement of North Korean troops in high-casualty combat operations.
ISW key takeaways as of November 1:
- Patriarch Kirill, head of the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), highlighted ongoing social and ideological divides within Russian society while reiterating boilerplate justifications for the war in Ukraine during a speech on October 31.
- Kirill also highlighted the growing trend of brutality and cruelty in the Russian military and attempted to excuse this trend as the emergence of a "neo-pagan" cult.
- Russian authorities also continue to identify conflict between ethnic Russians and minority groups as a critical issue.
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met with his North Korean counterpart Choe Son-hui in Moscow on November 1, securing strong affirmations of North Korea's support for Russia amid updated Western reports on the number of North Korean troops deployed to Russia.
- North Korean troops are unlikely to present Russia with a long-term solution to its manpower concerns, despite Choe's comments about Pyongyang's indefinite commitment to Russia's war effort.
- The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a new tranche of military assistance valued at $425 million to Ukraine on November 1.
- Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor failed to enforce its plan to deanonymize Russian social media accounts by its stated November 1 deadline.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Sudzha.
- Both Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced within central Vovchansk. Russian forces recently advanced northeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Kreminna.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) introduced a new system on November 1 allowing Russian veterans and their families to confirm their veteran statuses digitally.
What is known about the presence of the North Korean military near the border with Ukraine
According to the Financial Times on October 30, Russia has already moved around 3,000 North Korean troops to the Kursk region, positioning them 50 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
The Center for National Security (CNS) also reported that over 3,000 North Korean mercenaries have started training in the Kursk region. This information was obtained from local residents.
Additionally, the US Department of Defense has confirmed the presence of North Korean forces in Russia's Kursk region, close to Ukraine.
It's also reported that a North Korean military contingent of up to 12,000 personnel is training at five sites within the Eastern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces. This group includes at least 500 North Korean officers, among them three generals from the General Staff.
