Russian troops increase offensive tempo in east of Ukraine, but advance remains slow and positional – ISW

Recently, Russian troop movements in the east of Ukraine have been faster. However, overall progress is still slow, reflecting the nature of the ongoing positional fighting.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

According to American analysts, Western publications can be deceptive in comparing Russia's September offensive speed with the initial advance of a full-scale invasion.

According to the ISW report, Russian forces captured an average of 1,265 square kilometers per day in March 2024, compared to a much lower rate of about 14 square kilometers per day in September—nearly 90 times lower.

At the beginning of the war, the Russians' rapid advance led to the capture of significant territories in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv regions. However, the occupiers' later offensives are characterized by small, localized advances.

According to ISW, Russia's recent advances in the east of Ukraine, specifically the capture of Vuhledar and significant gains in the Selydove area (southeast of Pokrovsk) in the past week, are of tactical importance but do not suggest a substantial escalation in the overall offensive along the front line. The majority of the front remains relatively stable.

Russia's recent successes do not even come close to the offensive pace in the first stage of the war.

The current pace of Russian attacks is consistent with ISW's assessment that the Russian command is likely to have ordered its troops to step up mechanized attacks before the fall rains, which will make fighting difficult due to muddy conditions.

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It should be noted that the Russian troops intensified their attacks in the area of ​​the city of Selydove in the east of Ukraine, trying to break through from the eastern outskirts, but the Ukrainian defenders repulsed them.

Just recently, Ivan Petrychak, the head of the press service for the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade named after King Danylo, spoke on national television and mentioned that in Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region, the Russian invaders were able to breach the Ukrainian defense line. However, he assured that the situation was not critical.

As of October 29, the Russian forces attempting to penetrate the suburbs of Chasiv Yar on the Kramatorsk front have not made much headway. Their actions can hardly be considered a strategic victory.

Overall, the situation on the front remains challenging. The enemy, with its superior numbers and weaponry, continues to launch unyielding assaults on Ukrainian positions. Over the past 24 hours, there have been 175 clashes. The most intense were on the Pokrovsk and Kurakhiv fronts, with the enemy launching 85 attacks.