Limited funds and personnel may force Kremlin head to revise war strategy – ISW

Due to human resource shortages and economic difficulties, Vladimir Putin, Russia's dictator, may need to make crucial decisions regarding the allocation of military resources or altering tactics to maintain the stability of his regime.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

"The costs of fueling the war will increase as Russia continues to burn through manpower and materiel on the frontline. Russian resources are finite, and Putin cannot reckon with these costs indefinitely. Russia's economy will reach a burnout point. That burnout point will inflict great costs on Russian society, which may force Putin to make major decisions about how to resource Russia's war or change Russia's mode of warfighting to preserve his regime's stability," the report reads.

The Russian economy and military are facing growing pressure, which will present increasingly complex challenges to Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's ability to continue the war in the long run.

The Washington Post reported on October 27 that Russia's economy is "at risk of overheating." The Post noted that Russia's excessively high military spending has fueled economic growth and forced Russian companies to artificially raise wages to meet labor demand while remaining competitive against the background of the Russian military's high salaries.

The Washington Post quoted Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia's Central Bank, as warning in July 2024 that Russia's labor and manufacturing capacity was "almost exhausted."

The Washington Post notes that private Russian companies are struggling to keep up with the salaries of the Russian military and are increasingly being forced to offer salaries that are several times higher than typical industry averages.

ISW recently reported that Russian regional authorities are significantly increasing one-time signing bonuses for Russian military contractors to maintain the pace of deployment of Russia's armed forces (approximately 30,000 troops per month).

"This emphasizes the fact that Russia does not have an infinite reserve of human resources and must financially and socially reckon with the ever-increasing costs of replenishing losses at the front due to various ways of deploying the armed forces.

Putin very likely assesses that calling another partial mobilization wave or introducing general mobilization will be too costly for his regime. Therefore, he has resorted to crypto-mobilization efforts that appear to be placing increasing strains on the Russian wartime economy.

The recent appearance of North Korean troops in Russia, and their reported deployment to the combat zone in the Kursk region, further suggests that Putin's entire force-generation system is very tenuous," ISW analysts note.

ISW key findings as of October 27:

• Russia's economy and war effort are coming under increasing strain, which will pose increasingly acute challenges to Russian President Vladimir Putin's ability to sustain the war over the long term.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces advanced within the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces advanced in and near Selydove and northwest of Vuhledar.
• Russian authorities are using Cossack organizations to militarize Russian children and build out Russia's force generation reserve in the long term.

Earlier, British intelligence reported that Russia's invasion of Ukraine hurt the prospects of the Russian economy.

Earlier, British intelligence noted that the Kremlin is definitely putting pressure on the Russian Federation's budget; it has secreted a significant part of its military expenses.

Furthermore, British intelligence believes that Russia is inching closer to the USSR, with people being compelled to work for free in support of the war effort.

The Ministry of Defense of Great Britain has also mentioned that changes to labor laws are being developed for Russian residents, allowing them to relocate to areas with a shortage of workers.