Russian military has lost five divisions of armored vehicles since Avdiivka capture operation – ISW
Photo: Anadolu Agency
According to experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian military's willingness to trade limited tactical gains for a high loss cost in armored vehicles will be increasingly costly due to the limited supply of older Soviet weaponry and equipment.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.
American analysts report that Russian forces have lost at least five armored divisions since they began their offensive operation to capture Avdiiivka in October 2023, as well as during increased offensive operations in the western Donetsk region this summer.
According to experts at the Institute, users of social network X, who monitor visually confirmed losses of Russian equipment in Ukraine, have reported that the Russian army has lost 1,830 units of heavy equipment in the Pokrovsk district since October 9, 2023.
"The X user's assessment based on visually confirmed vehicle losses is likely conservative given that not all Russian vehicle losses are visually documented. The actual number of Russian vehicle losses in the Pokrovsk area is likely higher than reported," ISW believes.
The summary suggests that Russian military leaders may be unwilling or unable to recognize the growing number of military equipment losses over the next several months and years. This is due to various factors, such as:
- restrictions on Russian defense manufacturing,
- a lack of Soviet-era equipment reserves,
- and the Russian military's inability to make meaningful progress through a mechanized approach during operations.
Experts have observed that over the past year, the Russian military has only made about a 40-kilometer advancement on the Avdiivka and Pokrovsk fronts. The ongoing loss of five or more divisions' worth of equipment for such small gains cannot be sustained unless there are significant changes in Russia's capacity to fund its war efforts.
"The Russian military command's willingness to pursue limited tactical advances in exchange for significant armored vehicle losses will become increasingly costly as Russian forces burn through finite Soviet-era weapons and equipment stocks in the coming months and years," the Institute emphasized.
The ISW added that Russia is likely to try to adequately provide its units with material resources in the long term without shifting the Russian economy to military lines and significantly increasing the pace of Russian defense industrial production, a step that Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin has so far tried to avoid.
ISW key findings as of October 6:
- Russian forces have reportedly lost at least five divisions' worth of armored vehicles and tanks in the Pokrovsk district since beginning their offensive operation to seize Avdiivka in October 2023 and during intensified Russian offensive operations in the western Donetsk region in Summer 2024.
- The Russian military command may not be willing or able to accept the current scale and rate of vehicle loss in the coming months and years, given the constraints in Russia's defense industrial production, limits to Russia's Soviet-era vehicle stockpiles, and the Russian military's failure to achieve operationally significant territorial advances through mechanized maneuver.
- Ukrainian officials continue to document and prosecute Russian war crimes committed against Ukrainian forces.
- Russian authorities reportedly arrested the administrator of the Russian Telegram channel Thirteenth, who has previously criticized the Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), on October 5.
- Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Pokrovsk.
As reported, the losses of the Russian army in Ukraine this week amount to 8,660 soldiers and 1,540 units of weapons and military equipment.
Furthermore, members of the "Kryla" special unit under the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine located and eliminated the Russian anti-aircraft missile system "Osa."
