Ukrainian troops launched successful offensive in Kursk region, despite Russian preparations — ISW

The Ukrainian armed forces were able to conduct an offensive operation in the Kursk region using the element of surprise, even though the Russian authorities had known about the possibility of this invasion for several months.

Rubryka writes about this, referring to the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

American analysts point out that, although Russia had information about the upcoming offensive, it did not take the necessary measures to avert it.

According to the British media outlet The Guardian, which refers to Russian government and military documents seized by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, Russian troops have repeatedly warned the command about the threat from Ukraine since the end of 2023.

However, the Russian leadership ignored these warnings, as a result of which units in the border areas of the Kursk region were not properly prepared.

The documents show that the local military command tried to:

• organize additional training,
• build new fortifications,
• prepare the so-called "bait trenches".

Despite this, Russian military units in June 2024 were only 60-70% manned and largely consisted of poorly trained reservists. This allowed the Ukrainian military to take advantage of operational uncertainty and launch a surprise attack.

ISW analysts emphasize that, although Russia knew about the possibility of an offensive at various points along the border, Ukrainian forces managed to keep their operational plans secret. The Ukrainian military used innovative methods that combined ground operations with the use of unmanned systems, which contributed to their success.

This confirms the ability of Ukrainian forces to use unexpected tactics, even on an open battlefield, where the enemy can observe the movements of forces.

ISW key takeaways as of September 20

• European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced two new loan mechanisms worth up to €45 billion (roughly $50 billion) and €35 billion (roughly $39 billion) respectively during a visit to Kyiv on September 20.
• Russian authorities were reportedly aware of the threat of a future Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast in the months leading up to August 2024 but failed to take adequate steps to address such a threat.
• These documents support ISW's recent assessment that Ukrainian forces achieved operational surprise during the incursion into Kursk Oblast despite Russian authorities' reported awareness of the possibility of an incursion.
• Russian officials attempted to use a meeting with the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) to legitimize Russia's occupation of Ukraine and promote false narratives about alleged Ukrainian human rights abuses.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Kreminna, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk, and Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions in Vovchansk and Siversk.
• Russian state media is increasingly emphasizing the participation of foreign nationals in the Russian war effort in Ukraine, likely to reassure domestic audiences that Russia continues to recruit sufficient manpower and will not need to declare another mobilization wave.

Battles in the Kursk region

Ukrainian forces won a morale-boosting tactical victory when they captured about 1,200 sq. km of Russian territory, captured 594 enemy soldiers and controls more than 100 settlements after a surprise attack on August 6. The operation helped to restore some faith in the offensive potential of Ukraine, changing the interpretation of the war.

In addition, in the Kursk region, the Ukrainian military captured hundreds of Russian soldiers. So, on August 15, the enemy company decided to lay down their arms, because the military leadership left them to their own devices.

Also, on September 14, the Ukrainian Armed Forces continued their advance in the Glushki district of the Kursk region: their movement was recorded in the fields south of Tyotkino and north of Suzhi: the soldiers captured several villages.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine will hold Russian territory because it is an integral part of the plan to win the war.

In September, Russian troops launched a counteroffensive that could end in encirclement and defeat.President Zelensky said on September 13 that Russian troops "started rapid offensive actions", but without much success.