Russia has anticipated Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk region, but could not prevent it despite months of planning – The Guardian

The Russian military leadership predicted that Ukrainian troops would carry out an operation in the Kursk region, and they spent several months devising strategies to counter it. The plans were found in the remaining Russian positions in the area.

The Guardian reported that.

As noted in the material, the disclosure of information makes the panic among Russian troops after Ukraine's offensive Ukraine in early August even more shameful.

The documents provided to The Guardian also reveal Russia's concern about the morale of the troops in the Kursk region.

In late August, The Guardian met with a Ukrainian special forces group who had managed to seize documents and return to Ukraine. The group obtained the documents from various Russian government agencies, including the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Federal Security Service, and the military, by raiding buildings in the Kursk region. They then carefully selected some documents for The Guardian to view and photograph.

Some documents are:

• printed orders sent to various units,
• handwritten journals that record events and issues at specific positions.

The earliest records date to the end of 2023, and the most recent documents date to six weeks before Ukraine launched its offensive in the Kursk region on August 6.

Most of the documents came from units of the 488th Guards Motorized Rifle Regiment of Russia, particularly from the second company of its 17th battalion.

In a note dated January 4, there was mention of the possibility of a breakthrough on the state border by Ukraine's armed forces, and it was instructed to ramp up preparations to defend against any potential attack. On February 19, commanders of units were alerted to Ukrainian intentions of quickly advancing from the Sumy region into Russian territory to achieve a depth of 80 km in just four days to establish a "corridor" before the arrival of the main armored units of the Ukrainian army.

In mid-March, units on the border were ordered to strengthen defensive lines and "organize additional training on the leadership of units and strongholds on the proper organization of defense" in preparation for a Ukrainian offensive across the border.

In mid-June, a more specific warning appeared about Ukrainian plans "in the direction of Yunakovka-Sudzha, to take Sudzha under control," which actually happened in August. It was also predicted that Ukraine would try to destroy the bridge over the Seim River to disrupt Russian supply lines in the region, which also happened later. The June document complained that Russian units stationed at the front "are only 60-70% staffed on average and mostly consist of poorly trained reserves."

When the Ukrainian attack began on August 6, many Russian soldiers abandoned their positions, and within a week, Ukraine took complete control of Sudzha.

"They fled without even evacuating or destroying their documents," a member of the special operations team who seized the files said.

As Moscow's retreat descended into chaos, Ukrainian forces managed to seize hundreds of Russian soldiers, a significant number of whom were conscripts who typically do not engage in fighting. The parents of one of the conscripts from the second company mentioned in the documents recorded a tearful video message in August, identifying him as their 22-year-old son Vadim Kopylov, saying he had been captured near Sudzha and calling on Russian authorities to exchange him.

The documents provide insight into Russian tactics over the past year, in one case referring to the need to create false tranches and positions to confuse Ukrainian reconnaissance drones.

"It is necessary to create models of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery installations, as well as mannequins of soldiers, and they should be periodically moved," one of the orders reads.

Unit commanders have been instructed to ensure that Russian state media are imposed on soldiers daily to maintain their "psychological state."

For reference:

The offensive operation of the Defense Forces of Ukraine in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation began on August 6, 2024.

The Ukrainian operation continues in the Kursk region. On September 13, Ukrainian troops advanced in the Glushkovsky district.

At the same time, the ISW assumes that the Russians intend to cut off the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region before a coordinated operation to dislodge the Defense Forces.

The head of state, Volodymyr Zelensky, confirmed that the Russians had started counteroffensive actions in the Kursk region, part of which is held by the Ukrainian military.

As of August 27, the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's armed forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, reported that since the beginning of the operation in the Kursk region of Russia, Ukraine has captured 594 enemy soldiers and controls more than 100 settlements, or 1,294 square kilometers. According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, such actions are aimed at creating a buffer zone to stand in the way of Russian military operations against Ukraine.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that Ukraine would keep Russian territory, as this was an integral part of the plan to win the war.

In September, Russian troops launched a counteroffensive, which could end in encirclement and defeat for them. President Zelensky said on September 13 that Russian troops "started rapid offensive actions" but without much success.