Kremlin boosts drone production in efforts to offset consequences of war against Ukraine – ISW

Specialists of the Institute for the Study of War believe that the Kremlin is increasing the production of drones amid efforts to show compensation for the social and economic consequences of the war in Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

"The Kremlin continues to signal its commitment to improving Russian drone operations in Ukraine and drone production capabilities amid efforts to offset the social and economic impacts of a protracted Russian war effort," the statement said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with the Military-Industrial Commission of Russia on September 19 and discussed current efforts to increase the production of Russian drones.

He acknowledged that drones are an integral part of modern warfare and that Russia's war in Ukraine further confirmed that assessment.

Putin said Russian companies delivered about 140,000 drones to the Russian military in 2023 and claimed that Russia plans to increase drone production tenfold (to 1.4 million drones) in 2024.

The dictator of the Russian Federation emphasized that Russia should "constantly" increase its capabilities in the production of drones and the efficiency of Russian-made UAVs to meet the needs of the Russian military.

He also praised Russian private initiatives in the production of drones.

Putin noted that private drones are not "inferior" to drones produced by state-owned defense companies and that Russia's Defense Ministry allegedly thoroughly tests all drone models before handing them over to Russian troops at the front.

A DW investigation, however, has uncovered evidence that some Russian irregular forces may be testing newly developed drones in strikes against Ukrainian civilians, possibly to speed up testing.

Experts add that Russian bloggers constantly complain about the low quality of government drones and often praise private UAV production initiatives, calling them more efficient.

"Putin's claims that Russian plans to increase the drone production to 1.4 million drones in 2024 are slightly lower than planned Ukrainian drone production rates in 2024.

Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Strategic Industrial Hanna Hvozdiar noted in March 2024 that Ukraine intends to produce two million drones in 2024, and Ukrainian officials have repeatedly emphasized that Ukraine is prioritizing modernizing and constantly developing new drones to meet the needs of Ukrainian service members," ISW analysts note.

ISW key findings as of September 19:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly declined a request from the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) to offset Russian losses by declaring another mobilization wave in spring 2024, likely to avoid political costs associated with involuntary reserve call-ups. Putin has since remained committed to his crypto mobilization campaign, constraining Russia's mobilization potential.
• Mobilization in Russia remains unlikely in the near to medium term due to Putin's personal fear that mobilization directly threatens his regime's stability.
• Russian authorities have reportedly tasked Russian forces with pushing Ukrainian troops out of the Kursk region by mid-October 2024 and establishing a "buffer zone" into Ukrainian border areas along the international border with Russia in northeastern Ukraine by the end of October — significant undertakings that the Russian military is very unlikely to achieve in such a short period.
• The Kremlin continues to signal its commitment to improving Russian drone operations in Ukraine and drone production capabilities amid efforts to offset the social and economic impacts of a protracted Russian war effort.
• Putin claimed that Russia must ensure that there are "no barriers" to the movement of Russian citizens between mainland Russia and the Kaliningrad region.
• The reported transfer of Indian artillery shells through European intermediaries to Ukraine is reportedly generating tensions within the Russian-Indian relationship.
• The European Parliament called on member states to lift restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use Western-provided long-range systems to strike military objects in Russia.
• Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced in the Kursk region.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian troops recently advanced near Kharkiv City, Svatove, Siversk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Huliaipole.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated during a meeting on the development of the Russian Armed Forces on September 18 that the Kremlin aims to improve Russia's federal-level training system.

It should be noted that on September 16, Putin signed a decree to increase the number of Russian armed forces by 180,000 people to 1.5 million, which will enter into force in December 2024. This is the third decree signed by Putin to increase the number of Russian armed forces since the beginning of the war against Ukraine in February 2022.

However, Vladimir Putin's efforts to grow his army by 180,000 soldiers will encounter obstacles due to significant casualties in Ukraine and challenges with recruitment.