Ukraine’s strikes on Russian rear facilities disrupt invaders’ march forward – ISW

Apart from the destruction of ammunition stocks and facilities, if Ukrainian attacks on Russian logistical facilities in the rear persist, it will increase the operational burden on the Russian military.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

If Ukrainian troops have the necessary resources and approval, their strikes on Russian territory could have a significant impact on offensive operations across the entire battlefield in Ukraine. These strikes would target logistical and support objects, potentially disrupting Russia's ability to provide aid.

Analysts from the Institute stressed that during the summer of 2022, Ukrainian forces launched a series of HIMARS strikes on Russian ammunition depots located in occupied Ukraine. This prompted the Russian troops to scatter their ammunition depots and ultimately hindered their logistical capabilities at the time.

"Repeated strikes against ammunition depots within Russia that cause similar levels of damage to the strike in Toropets may force a similar decision point on the Russian military command to reorganize and disperse support and logistics systems within Russia to mitigate the impact of such strikes.  

Russian forces may not have addressed vulnerabilities at many logistics facilities within Russia due to the sanctuary space that restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided weapons have generated. However, the Toropets facility is not within range of Western systems fired from Ukraine.

The lifting of restrictions on the use of Western systems and the continued development of Ukraine's own long-range strike capabilities may allow Ukrainian forces to exploit such Russian vulnerabilities more effectively," the statement said.

ISW also noted that in July 2024, Ukrainian forces struck another Russian munitions depot near Sergeevka, Voronezh region, and further Ukrainian strikes on Russian munitions and missile depots could also destroy a significant portion of Russian material stocks.

ISW key findings as of September 18:

• Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone strike against a Russian missile and ammunition storage facility near Toropets, Tver region, on September 18.
• Continued Ukrainian strikes against rear Russian logistics facilities within Russia will generate broader operational pressures on the Russian military beyond the individual destruction of ammunition stockpiles and logistics facilities.
• Russian authorities arrested the head of the Central Military District (CMD)'s armor service on September 18 on suspicion of receiving a large bribe, marking yet another corruption case against a high-ranking Russian military official since the April 2024 appointment of Andrei Belousov as Russian Defense Minister.
• An unsuccessful armed assault against several offices of Russia's largest online retailer, Wildberries, in Moscow City, highlights the fragility of Russia's domestic stability.
• Armenian officials continue to criticize the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) amid worsening bilateral relations between Armenia and Russia.
• Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova condemned Israel for simultaneously detonating thousands of pagers belonging to Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) members across Lebanon and Syria on September 17, signaling Russia's continued rhetorical alignment with Iran's Axis of Resistance against Israel.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Glushkovsky district west of the main Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region amid continued Ukrainian assaults in and west of the salient. Russian forces regained positions within the salient.
• Russian forces recently advanced along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line within Toretsk, southwest of Donetsk City, and in the eastern Zaporizhzhia region.
• The Russian State Duma announced on September 18 that it approved a bill in its first reading that proposes releasing Russian servicemembers serving in Ukraine from criminal punishment associated with cases actively being tried in Russian courts.

It's worth mentioning that on the evening of Wednesday, September 18, 2024, a significant UAV assault took place in Russia's Tver region. This led to fires and explosions at military depots. The town of Toropets was at the center of the incident, as the drone strike set off ammunition explosions at the 107th arsenal of the Russian Ministry of Defense's Main Directorate. The incident resulted in a partial evacuation of the community and sparked a wave of anxiety among the residents.

It was also reported that units of the Naval Forces of Ukraine's armed forces launched a missile attack on Russian ammunition depots. They were located near the temporarily occupied Mariupol.