Insufficient military aid from the West hinders creation of new brigades in Ukraine – ISW

Ukraine has made considerable efforts to address its military's lack of human resources. However, delays and insufficient aid from Western military sources still hinder its capability to form successful combat units.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

American analysts refer to the statements of the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky.

The Ukrainian leader noted that to achieve the necessary level of combat readiness, Ukraine needs 14 brigades, but at this time, even four of them could not be fully equipped due to a lack of military equipment and ammunition.

Analysts stress that Ukrainian forces have partially alleviated artillery ammunition shortages caused by delays in Western aid by using FPV drones to suppress Russian infantry and armored vehicle attacks. Still, these drones cannot compensate for the tactical demands of traditional field artillery.

Ukraine has taken steps to increase its 155 mm artillery ammunition production, but during the war, it had to build this industry mainly from scratch.

Ukraine is also working on increasing the production of armored vehicles, including armored personnel carriers, starting in 2022, but cannot produce full-fledged tanks.

"The US and other foreign allies likely can significantly increase the effectiveness of Ukrainian force-generation and force-reconstitution efforts by providing Ukrainian forces with more mechanized equipment, such as M113 armored personnel carriers, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, and main battle tanks.

Ukraine's 155th Infantry Brigade was recently upgraded to a mechanized infantry brigade, for example, after it was equipped with Leopard tanks.

The generation of more Ukrainian infantry without a commensurate increase in mechanized equipment will not substantially increase Ukraine's combat power or increase Ukraine's warfighting capabilities," the ISW emphasized.

Although Ukraine is increasing its domestic drone production and transferring equipment from reserves, this is still not enough for effective warfare, especially due to the lack of armored vehicles and artillery ammunition.

ISW analysts emphasize that Ukraine's effectiveness on the battlefield largely depends on Western military support. Without adequate provision of mechanized equipment, the creation of additional infantry will not significantly increase the Ukrainian army's combat capability.

Zelensky also emphasized that Ukraine needs permission to use Western-provided high-precision weapons to strike military targets in Russia, as the Russian Federation has already begun to take advantage of Western restrictions and political delays and move aircraft from airfields within the range of Western-provided high-precision weapons.

"Preliminary ISW estimates that Russia has more than 200 military sites within range of US-provided ATACMS that are not airfields, and significant delays in granting Ukraine permission to strike these sites give the Kremlin more time to consolidate or relocate these objects beyond the reach of weapons provided by the West before Ukrainian troops can strike them with these weapons," the analysts emphasized.

ISW key findings as of September 16:

• Ukraine has taken steps to address its human resources shortages. Still, delays and insufficiencies in Western military aid to Ukraine continue to limit its ability to generate effective combat units that can defend critical areas and contest the theater-wide initiative.
• Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine's incursion into the Kursk region has forced Russia to redirect some resources from Ukraine to defend in Russia. However, Ukraine still needs sufficient resources and Western permission to strike military targets in Russia to mitigate the theater-wide strain on Ukrainian forces.
• Russia continues to build out its long-term military capacity by gradually increasing the size of its armed forces.
• Iran is simultaneously setting conditions to build a nuclear weapon while continuing to signal its willingness to resume nuclear negotiations with the West.
• Select Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officials continue to face corruption charges as the Russian military leadership is undertaking a broader effort to root out corruption in the MoD.
• Ukrainian forces advanced in Glushkovsky Raion, Kursk region, and Russian troops recaptured territory in the area as of September 16. Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the Kursk salient.
• Ukrainian forces regained territory near Kharkiv City and Pokrovsk.
• Russian forces advanced near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar.
• Russia reportedly continues to coerce migrants to fight in the Russian military.