Russia aims to end war in Ukraine by 2026 amid looming economic crisis — Ukraine’s intelligence chief

The Russian Federation aims to end the war by 2026 to avoid severe economic and social challenges, including potential mobilization, which could occur as early as the summer of 2025.

This was stated by Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR), according to Interfax-Ukraine.

Budanov noted that 2025 is a pivotal year for Russia. According to Kremlin forecasts, failure in the war would mean the country loses its ability to claim superpower status for many decades, a goal it aspires to.

Referring to Russian documents, Budanov explained that Moscow fears if they don't achieve victory by the end of 2025, they will permanently lose the chance to become a global leader alongside the United States and China.

"The end of 2025 and the start of 2026 is critical for Russia. If they can't secure a victory by then, they will be excluded from global geopolitics as a superpower for the next 30 years," Budanov stated.

He also highlighted that Moscow expects serious economic and socio-political issues as soon as the summer of 2025.

According to Budanov, Russian forecasts indicate that economic problems will start becoming very noticeable by the summer of 2025.

"But that's not the peak. They predict that by mid-2025, the negative impact on their economy will become very evident," he said.

Budanov added that these economic concerns are driving Russia to accelerate various processes in the hope of achieving a victory.

The negative economic effects could become so significant that Russia may be forced to either scale back the war or announce another wave of mobilization.

"Russia will face a tough decision: either announce a new mobilization or reduce the intensity of the war, which could be a critical blow for them," Budanov added.

He also pointed out that shortages within the Russian army are becoming more apparent, pushing the Kremlin to seek ways to end the war on favorable terms.

Despite public satisfaction with the occupation of 30% of Ukraine and high military wages, the number of volunteer fighters in Russia is decreasing. As a result, the government has increased one-time payments for those signing contracts.

Budanov also noted that the war being brought to Russian territory has shaken the public's perception of their military as the strongest in the world.

War in Ukraine

In May 2022, President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the war ignited by Russia would end when Ukraine regains its territories, people, peace, freedom, and right to choose.

At the end of 2023, Zelensky remarked that even military commanders couldn't predict whether the war would end in 2024.

In July 2024, Zelensky suggested that the active phase of the war might conclude within the year.

And in late August, he indicated that Ukraine's war with Russia could end through dialogue, but only if Kyiv holds a strong position.