Russian troops prepare to halt Ukrainian advance in Kursk region – ISW

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russians are planning to halt the Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region before launching a synchronized operation to remove the Defense Forces of Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

"Russian forces began counterattacks along the western edge of the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region and reportedly seized several settlements northeast and south of Korenevo on September 10 and 11. 

The size, scale, and potential prospects of the September 11 Russian counterattacks in the Kursk region are unclear and the situation remains fluid as of this report. It is premature to conclude Russia's new counterattacks, and ISW will continue following the situation," the ISW said.

On September 11, the release of geolocation data shows that Russian troops have once again taken up positions east of Zhuravli, which is northeast of Korenevo.

Several Russian sources have claimed that Russian forces have fully captured Snagost, but ISW has not seen visual confirmation of these claims.

According to reports, Ukrainian troops launched new attacks against the Russian counteroffensive west of Snagost and across the entire Ukrainian front in the Kursk region.

"Available visual evidence suggests that Russian forces counterattacking in the Kursk region are operating in company-sized units and may be using elements of more combat-experienced units to conduct counterattacks."

"Russian forces may intend to temporarily bisect the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region before beginning a more organized and well-equipped effort to push Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory," ISW experts note.

Analysts point out that Russian forces are currently conducting counterattacks along the western edge of the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region, which consists mostly of fields and small settlements.

However, experts suggest that Russian forces are trying to occupy more tactically advantageous positions during these initial counterattacks before launching a broader counteroffensive operation against Ukrainian forces operating northeast of Korenevo and near Sudzha.

The report also suggests that Russian forces may intend to cut through the Ukrainian salient and advance to the border southeast of Snagost to disrupt existing Ukrainian logistics routes and fire support positions closer to the border before launching a more extensive counteroffensive operation.

"It would be premature to assess the impact of two days of Russian counterattacks on the month-long Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, particularly amid ongoing Ukrainian cross-border assaults, and ISW will continue to evaluate the impact of the Russian counterattacks in the coming days."

ISW key findings as of September 11:

• Russian forces began counterattacks along the western edge of the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region and reportedly seized several settlements northeast and south of Korenevo on September 10 and 11.
• Available visual evidence suggests that Russian forces counterattacking in the Kursk region are operating in company-sized units and may be using elements of more combat-experienced units to conduct counterattacks.
• Russian forces may intend to temporarily bisect the Ukrainian salient in the Kursk region before beginning a more organized and well-equipped effort to push Ukrainian troops out of Russian territory.
• US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy arrived in Kyiv on September 11. They reiterated support for Ukraine but did not clarify current Western policy on Ukraine's ability to strike military objects in Russia with Western-provided weapons.
• The People's Republic of China (PRC) continues to promote its alternative peace plan for the war in Ukraine.
• Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reiterated his support for Ukraine on September 11.
• Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupiansk, near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.
• Ukrainian Kharkiv Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vitaliy Sarantsev reported on September 11 that Russian forces are replenishing their tactical, operational, and strategic reserves.
• Russian occupation authorities illegally held regional elections in occupied Crimea from September 6 to 8. They likely fabricated increased voter turnout numbers to claim that residents broadly support Russia's illegal occupation of Crimea.