Russian soldiers renew attempts to encircle Ukrainian forces on Pokrovsk front – ISW

Currently, the Russian army is carrying out two tactical operations as part of the offensive operation to capture Pokrovsk and is trying to surround the Ukrainian positions between Myrnohrad and Hrodivka.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.

The initial tactical maneuver on the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka frontline, east of Pokrovsk, was intended to seize Myrnohrad and progress towards the outskirts of Pokrovsk.

The second strategic maneuver along the Selydove-Ukrainsk-Hirnyk line, southeast of Pokrovsk, aims to bolster Russian forces in that direction and eliminate any weak points that may be vulnerable to counterattacks from Ukrainian troops.

The Russian military command likely sees both of these tactical operations as necessary steps before launching a strong offensive on Pokrovsk itself.

According to General Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's armed forces, the heaviest fighting in the Pokrovsk area is ongoing on the eastern outskirts of Hrodivka (located east of Pokrovsk), southwest of Hrodivka near Krasny Yar, within Novohrodivka (southeast of Pokrovsk), and directly east of Selydove near Mykhailivka (southeast of Pokrovsk).

ISW has observed Russian advances in these areas in recent days.

Recently, Russian troops surrounded Ukrainian positions southeast of Pokrovsk along the Karliv Reservoir and forced Ukrainian troops to retreat from limited positions in the area.

They probably aim to achieve a similar outcome by attempting to surround Ukrainian positions in the area between Myrnohrad and Hrodivka. However, it is uncertain if Russian troops can maintain a swift advance through the sizable city of Myrnohrad and its surrounding areas.

ISW key findings as of August 29:

• Russian forces are currently pursuing two immediate tactical efforts as part of their ongoing offensive operation to seize Pokrovsk — a tactical effort along the Novohrodivka-Hrodivka line east of Pokrovsk to seize Myrnohrad and advance up to Pokrovsk's outskirts and another tactical effort along the Selydove-Ukrainsk-Hirnyk line southeast of Pokrovsk aimed at widening Russia's salient in the Pokrovsk direction and eliminating vulnerabilities to Ukrainian counterattacks.
• The Russian military command likely aims to achieve both tactical efforts before launching the more resource-intensive effort to seize Pokrovsk itself. However, Russian forces may begin urban combat in Pokrovsk regardless of whether progress stalls on these preparatory efforts.
• Russian authorities are creating new volunteer territorial defense units in response to the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, highlighting Russian President Vladimir Putin's unwillingness to counter the incursion more seriously with a mobilization due to the risks of societal discontent or with large-scale redeployments due to possible disruptions to Russia's ongoing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced north of Sudzha as Russian forces recaptured some areas of the Kursk region on August 29.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 29 that a Ukrainian F-16 fighter jet recently crashed while defending against a large-scale Russian drone and missile strike.
• Russian authorities arrested and charged former Russian Deputy Defense Minister Army General Pavel Popov with large-scale fraud on August 29.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin will conduct an official visit to Mongolia despite its status as a signatory to the Rome Statute and its legal obligation to enforce an arrest warrant for Putin from the International Criminal Court (ICC).
• The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed on August 29 that Ukrainian forces struck the Atlas Oil Refinery in the Rostov region and the Zenit Oil Depot in the Kirov region on the night of August 27 to 28.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupiansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
• The Russian government continues to expand pathways for accused criminals to sign military service contracts.

It is worth mentioning that soldiers of Ukraine's armed forces destroyed a Russian assault group on the Toretsk front. Three invaders were captured.