Russians are reluctant to redeploy troops to Kursk to avoid disrupting offensive in Ukraine’s east – ISW

To prevent the events in the Kursk region from disrupting the offensive operations of the Russian Federation in the east of Ukraine, the Russian military command can currently resist the redeployment of forces from other operational directions.

Rubryka reported this with reference to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

"The Russian military command appears to be relying on existing units deployed to the international border area and readily available forces in the rear, most of which are units staffed with conscripts and irregular forces, to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk region.

These units would likely be the first to respond even if the Russian military command has decided to transfer additional, more experienced units from elsewhere in the theater," the statement said.

The Russian military command reportedly deployed forces from unspecified operational reserves, additional units staffed by conscripts, special forces (Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian General Staff [GRU]), special operations forces (SSO), additional Chechen special forces Akhmat operating under the auspices of the Ministry of Defense of Russia, as well as the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People's Republic (AC DNR) and former service members of the Wagner Group in the regions of the Kursk Region.

"The Russian military command may currently be transferring more experienced and better-provisioned frontline units from eastern or southern Ukraine to Kursk region, but it would likely take additional time for such units to arrive in the Kursk region," ISW analysts note.

A Russian military blogger reported that units of the 44th Army Corps (Leningrad Military District) of the Russian Northern Army Group are operating near Rylsk. However, the blogger suggested that the Russian military command may be redeploying units it has accumulated for an offensive operation in the northern Kharkiv region.

If this is true, then perhaps the Russian military command decided that the disruption of the offensive operation in the north of the Kharkiv region is a necessary sacrifice while avoiding redeployment from more priority areas of the front.

The more extensive redeployment of Russian troops from frontline areas is likely to be slower, and more combat-ready frontline units may begin arriving in the Kursk region in the coming days.

Key takeaways as of August 9

• Russian sources claimed on August 9 that Ukrainian forces advanced further east in Kursk region but are likely no longer operating as far north or as far west as Russian sources previously claimed on August 8.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian military convoy east of Rylsk near Oktyabrskoye, Kursk region.
• The Russian military command appears to be relying on existing units deployed to the international border area and readily available forces in the rear, most of which are units staffed with conscripts and irregular forces, to address the ongoing Ukrainian incursion into Kursk region.
• These units would likely be the first to respond even if the Russian military command has decided to transfer additional, more experienced units from elsewhere in the theater.
• The Russian military command may currently be resisting operational pressures to redeploy forces from other operational directions to prevent the Ukrainian incursion from disrupting Russian offensive operations in eastern Ukraine.
• The Russian military command may currently be transferring more experienced and better-provisioned frontline units from eastern or southern Ukraine to Kursk region, but it would likely take additional time for such units to arrive in Kursk region.
• Ukrainian forces conducted strikes against a Russian military airfield in Lipetsk region and other Russian military targets in occupied Crimea and Donetsk region on August 9.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to posture itself as providing sufficient medical care to Russian servicemembers.

We will remind, on the morning of August 6, information appeared on Russian Telegram channels that Ukrainian troops allegedly broke through the border and entered the territory of the Kursk region.

Later, it became known that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation decided to transfer reserves to the border area in the Kursk region after the alleged "breakthrough of the Ukrainian military" there.