Russian troops push forward in Donetsk region due to terrain and understaffed Ukrainian army – ISW

The Russian troops are actively advancing in the Donetsk region due to the region's topography and insufficiency in staffing of Ukraine's armed forces brigades.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this.

Russian troops are making gains in the Pokrovsk area of the Donetsk region due to the shortage of human resources in Ukraine's military and the ease of the terrain northwest of Avdiivka.

At the same time, analysts predict a slowdown in the Russian Federation's offensive operation, as the aggressor's troops are "advancing to the line of large and more urbanized settlements."

Therefore, according to Ukrainian military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets, the Defense Forces on the Pokrovsk front have inferior equipment and protective measures, which makes them unable to hinder Russian advancement. 

According to him, delays in providing Western and primarily American military aid led to delays in equipping newly created Ukrainian units and re-equipment of those already participating in the battles.

According to the ISW report, the Russian army is slowly taking advantage of this vulnerability to gain tactical advantages in the northwest of Avdiivka. Their troops are attempting to create a limited tactical encirclement of the Defense Forces to the east of the T0511 (O0544) Ocheretyne-Hrodivka-Myrnohrad road and on the left bank of the Vovcha River.

"Geolocated footage published on August 1 shows that Russian forces have advanced further within Vesele towards the T0511 road, placing the current furthest confirmed Russian advance about 3.5 kilometers from the outskirts of Hrodivka," the report says.

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At the same time, Russian military bloggers assert that Russian troops are moving south from Vesele using the railway line and windbreaks towards Serhiivka and Zhelanne (located south of Vesele). This could enable the Russians to surround the Ukrainian forces in this region, provided that the Russians can utilize these tactics effectively.

Ukrainian and Russian sources also reported that Russian troops captured Tymofiivka north of road O0544 and the Vesele district.

Mashovets characterized Russian troops' recent advance in the area southeast of the O0544 road as a tactical penetration deep into the positions of Ukraine's armed forces. According to him, Russian troops advanced 6.5 kilometers deep and 7.5 kilometers wide from Sokol to Serhiivka recently, crossing the Vovcha and Kazennyi Torets Rivers (which flow through Prohres-Vovche and Lozuvatske).

The analyst warned that Russian troops are close to achieving an operationally significant breakthrough on the Pokrovsk front by the end of August.