Russia gears up to shut border in anticipation of potential fall mobilization wave – British intelligence

The Russian government is developing a system to prevent the departure of potential conscripts and mobilized soldiers from the Russian army.

The Ministry of Defense of Great Britain reported that on X (Twitter).

As noted in the summary, on July 11, the Russian independent media organization "Meduza" reported that the Russian government is implementing an "information exchange system" between the Ministry of Defense and the Federal Security Service [FSB – ed.] to transfer detailed information about potential conscripts to the FSB border service and prevent them from fleeing the country.

The system is said to be fully operational by the fall of 2024.

According to British intelligence, Russia conducts two military service drafts annually, calling up more than 250,000 people for one year of compulsory military service.

"Hundreds of thousands of Russians left the country after the announcement of partial mobilization in 2022, and they were disproportionately concentrated among young and highly educated people, which affected the labor market. Implementing this system is likely to prevent this from happening again on a smaller scale during the annual conscription cycle and in the event of a further wave of mobilization," the British Ministry of Defense notes.

British intelligence noted that Russia recruits about 30,000 new soldiers to the army every month, which allows it to cover losses and continue the war against Ukraine without resorting to unpopular mobilization.

According to the Levada Center, the share of those waiting for the second wave of mobilization decreased over the past year. 48% of Russians believe that it can be announced within the next three months.

Moreover, Moscow intends to continue adding to the number of occupying forces. A recent prediction in Britain suggests that Putin plans to conscript an additional 170,000 individuals for the war with Ukraine.

For reference:

Putin said that by the end of the year, he would recruit half a million Russians for the war against Ukraine; currently, 617 thousand are fighting.

Earlier, British intelligence reported that this year, Moscow's plans to create two new armies would likely face difficulties due to a shortage of new equipment and infrastructure problems. However, an adequate number of soldiers will be form units of 14 divisions and 16 brigades. These units' specific type, location, and composition have not yet been specified. However, it is expected that they will include a mix of mechanized, armored, artillery, and logistics units.

Currently, the Russian military has likely deployed under-equipped and understaffed reserve units to assist in attacking operations in eastern Ukraine.