West must invalidate Putin’s victory theory as his appetite will grow — ISW

The theory of the victory of the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin, according to which the Russian Federation will be able to make a creeping advance in Ukraine to infinity, will stimulate the head of the Kremlin to prolong the war and strengthen his desire to destroy Ukrainian statehood.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) writes about this, Rubryka reports.

According to the institute's analysts, the West must hasten to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to conduct counteroffensive operations to destroy Putin's theory of victory and prevent the war from being protracted.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer published on June 30 that he fears the West is afraid to insist on a total victory for Ukraine because of Western concerns about stability in Russia. This fear has allowed Putin to continue to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible.

Zelensky warned that each Russian advance strengthens Russia's negotiating position and that Putin may decide to try to use that position at the right time to secure a ceasefire that would allow Russia to prepare for future aggression against Ukraine.

Putin has formulated a theory of victory that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue their gradual creeping advance indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally meaningful counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.

"Putin and the Russian military command likely view creeping offensive operations as a more guaranteed approach to making gains in Ukraine than larger mobile offensives and appear to be accepting the reality that Russian forces may have to pursue individual operationally significant objectives over the course of many months if not years.

A protracted war favors Putin's calculus since he likely assesses that Russia will be able to hold any ground it takes and that Russian forces will be more likely to achieve his current stated territorial objectives the longer the war progresses. Putin and the Kremlin have intentionally set no limits to their objectives of conquest in Ukraine and have suggested repeatedly that areas outside of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk regions are part of Russia," the report said.

A protracted war is likely to encourage Putin to openly pursue new territorial goals if he assesses that Ukrainian forces will be unable to either halt his advance or mount a meaningful counteroffensive.

Putin maintains his goal of completely destroying Ukrainian statehood and identity, and all of his goals of territorial conquest in Ukraine are a means to that end.

Currently, Putin is unwilling to accept anything short of a complete surrender of Ukraine, but as his statements and demands have consistently demonstrated, he will view any ceasefire agreement as a mechanism to prepare Russia to resume offensive operations in the future to achieve its overall goals.

ISW key takeaways as of June 30

• Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory that Russia will be able to make creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely will incentivize Putin to protract the war and harden Putin's commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood. The West must hasten to provide Ukraine the support it needs to conduct counteroffensive operations to invalidate Putin's theory of victory and avoid protracting the war more than necessary to secure a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its partners.
• Putin retains his objective of entirely destroying Ukrainian statehood and identity, and all his objectives for territorial conquest in Ukraine are a means to this end.
• The Russian military command appears to be separating some limited elements of airborne (VDV) units and formations into smaller components across different sectors of the front, and the Russian military command may still view VDV units as relatively elite, at least compared with other Russian units and formations.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant (NLMK) in Lipetsk region on June 30.
• Dagestan Republic Head Sergei Melikov publicly sided with Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov in a recent debate between Kadyrov and Russian Investigative Commitee Head Alexander Bastrykin about responses to religious extremism in Russia amid growing ethnic and religious tension in Russia.
• Military and civilian flights continue to experience GPS interference over Europe and the Middle East, highlighting the role of long-term GPS jamming in ongoing and future conflicts.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kreminna, and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, Kupyansk, and Avdiivka.
• A Russian military blogger claimed on June 29 that Russian military commanders sent about 50 wounded soldiers of the 26th Tank Regiment (47th Tank Division, 1st Guards Tank Army, Moscow Military District [MMD]), who are on leave awaiting medical treatments, to the front against doctors' instructions.