13:59 17 Jun 2024

Putin shows lack of interest in good-faith negotiations on peace in Ukraine – ISW

Photo: screenshot of the video

According to the analysts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is not interested in and is unlikely to be interested in good-faith negotiations for peace in Ukraine in the near future.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this.

Almost all the countries and international organizations that participated in the Global Peace Summit, which Ukraine organized in Switzerland on June 15-16, signed a joint statement reiterating their support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The communique also confirmed:

  • support for Ukraine's operation and control over the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to ensure the safety of nuclear energy and facilities,
  • "free, full, and safe" commercial navigation in the Black Sea to ensure global food security,
  • exchange of all prisoners of war,
  • and return of all "deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian children" and other illegally detained Ukrainian civilians.

Around 80 countries and international organizations endorsed the communique, except Saudi Arabia, India, South Africa, Armenia, Bahrain, the UAE, and Brazil (which attended as an "observer"), which did not show support for the communique.

The Office of the President of Ukraine emphasized that the purpose of the summit was to promote "a just peace … based on the UN Charter and international law", highlighting Ukraine's efforts to enlist the support of the international community in ending the war on terms that do not violate international law, without endangering territorial integrity or sovereignty of Ukraine.

On June 16, at the summit, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said that "Russia should not sit at the negotiating table now" and that peace in Ukraine will come only when "Russia agrees with international principles and the UN Charter."

Additionally, analysts emphasize that ISW maintains its belief that the dictator Putin is not sincerely interested in negotiations and instead pretends to be open to talks in some instances as a tactic to undermine the West and push for concessions that would infringe upon Ukraine's sovereignty.

Putin is unlikely to be interested in negotiating in good faith for the foreseeable future, given that he recently put forward a theory of Russian victory in Ukraine. This theory is based on the assumption that Russian forces are capable of an indefinite creeping advance on the battlefield to withstand Western support for Ukraine.

ISW key findings as of June 16:

  • The vast majority of the countries and international organizations that participated in the Ukraine-initiated Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15-16 signed a joint communique on June 16 reaffirming support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
  • A limited prison break and hostage situation at a Russian pretrial detention center in Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast, prompted Russian ultranationalist complaints highlighting Russia's failure to crack down against domestic Islamic extremism following the March 22 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack.
  • The Kremlin and Kremlin affiliates continue efforts to use Russia's relationship with Republika Srpska (the Serbian political entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina) to destabilize the Balkans.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk and Donetsk City.
  • The Russian military reportedly continues to coerce Russian conscripts into signing military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), likely as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.

As Volodymyr Zelensky noted, Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement about territorial claims to Ukraine is a big mistake that is beneficial for Ukraine.

The Ukrainian president also answered under what conditions he is ready for negotiations with the Russian Federation and named two ways of putting pressure on Russia to end the war.

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