Ukraine strategizes to cripple Russian air defense ahead of F-16 delivery – ISW

According to analysts at ISW, Ukrainian forces are actively trying to weaken the Russian Federation's air defense capabilities. If successful, this could ultimately enable Ukraine to utilize manned aviation more efficiently in the future.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.

ISW analysts note that on the night of June 11-12, Ukrainian troops struck one S-300 battery and two S-400 batteries near occupied Belbek and Sevastopol in Crimea.

The Institute for the Study of War made a point to highlight images taken on June 12 that reveal Russian S–300 systems in the north of occupied Yevpatoria and a destroyed S–400 radar system in the south of occupied Dzhankoy. This further validates the Ukrainian General Staff's report on June 10 regarding the targeted attack on Russian air defense equipment in these specific locations.

"Some Russian sources speculated that Ukrainian forces used ATACMS in the June 11 to 12 strike, although ISW is unable to confirm which systems Ukrainian forces used," the report said.

Analysts also mention that the founder of the Kraken special unit of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, Kostiantyn Nemichev, confirmed on June 12 that Ukrainian forces used HIMARS to destroy four Russian S-300 systems in the Belgorod region.

It is reported that the destruction of Russian air defense systems in the Belgorod region prompted the Russian command to transfer air defense equipment from Crimea to this territory, which in turn worsened air defense on the temporarily occupied peninsula.

ISW notes that Ukraine's intelligence spokesman Andriy Yusov also clarified on June 12 that Ukrainian drone strikes on the Akhtubinsk airfield in the Astrakhan region between June 7 and 8 damaged two Russian Su-57 fighter jets, not one, as previously reported.

Experts stress the significance of the S–300/S–400 air defense systems and Su–57 fighters as crucial assets in Russian air defense and aviation. These assets effectively hinder Ukraine's ability to fly aircraft near the front and provide support for Russian offensive operations in Ukraine.

"Ukrainian forces may seek to actively degrade Russian air defenses before Ukraine receives a significant number of aircraft in order to set conditions for Ukraine's future use of manned fixed-wing airpower closer to frontline areas. Ukrainian forces may be attempting to degrade Russian air defenses ahead of anticipated F-16 fighter jet deliveries to Ukraine, which reportedly will begin in small quantities in summer and fall 2024," the statement said.

According to analysts, the Ukrainian armed forces should eventually be able to transition to using air support for ground operations. This will be possible if the Ukrainian military is supplied with a sufficient amount of fighter jets, if Western allies are able to adequately train enough skilled pilots, and if Ukraine is able to weaken Russian air defenses.

At the same time, ISW recalls that Ukrainian and Western officials have previously indicated that it will take a significant amount of time to properly train a sufficient number of Ukrainian pilots and equip the Ukrainian armed forces with at least 150 F-16 aircraft necessary for air superiority and to support ground operations.

"Ukrainian officials have also identified their envisioned use of F-16s and other fixed-wing aircraft to constrain Russian aviation operations, and Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Illia Yevlash noted that only two F-16 squadrons, roughly 18 aircraft, would be enough to significantly impact the situation in the Ukrainian airspace," analysts of the Institute for the Study of War concluded.

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It is worth mentioning that on the evening of June 12, loud explosions were heard in the temporarily annexed Crimea and Sevastopol, disrupting the Kerch Bridge traffic. The Russian Air Defense Forces were active in areas such as Sevastopol, Yevpatoria, Bakhchysaray, and Pervomaisky.

The General Staff confirmed that two S-300 and S-400 radars were destroyed in Crimea at night.

Moreover, on the night of June 10, the military of Ukraine's armed forces also carried out successful strikes on anti-aircraft missile systems on the territory of the temporarily occupied Crimea.

Earlier, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine confirmed the attack on the S-300/S-400 missile systems in the Russian Federation. The attack was carried out on June 1 with the use of "artillery installations of Western models."