ISW comments on Putin’s so-called “theory of victory” in war against Ukraine

Russia's President Vladimir Putin is trying to promote his "theory of victory," which is oriented towards a war of attrition.

Rubryka writes about this, referring to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

American analysts note that Putin formulated the so-called "theory of victory" in Ukraine on June 7. It provides that Russian troops will be able to:

• continue the gradual creeping advance indefinitely,
• prevent Ukraine from conducting successful significant counteroffensive operations,
• win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.

After his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Putin said Russia does not need to conduct another call-up of reservists, similar to the partial mobilization in September 2022, because Russia is not trying to quickly achieve its military goals in Ukraine.

He acknowledged that the current Russian military contingent involved in the war in Ukraine (reportedly all of Russia's combat-capable ground forces as of January 2024) would not be sufficient for a quick victory. However, he suggested that Russian forces are instead taking a more gradual approach.

Putin stated that the Russian forces aim to "displace" Ukrainian forces "from those territories that should be under Russian control." Therefore, Russia does not need to conduct another wave of mobilization.

The Kremlin chief argued that Russia's crypto-mobilization efforts are sufficient for such an approach. In addition, Russia has already recruited 160,000 new military personnel in 2024 (this figure is consistent with reports that the Russian armed forces are conscripting 20,000 to 30,000 recruits per month).

According to analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, Putin's assessment that gradual Russian advances will allow Russia to achieve its goals in Ukraine is based on the assumption that Ukrainian forces will not be able to liberate any significant territory that Russian forces capture and that the Russian military will be able to sustain offensive operations during which gradual tactical successes will be achieved, despite heavy losses.

Putin's assessment is reinforced by the recent months of delays in Western aid in the field of security and the corresponding restrictions on Ukraine's material supply, which allowed Russian troops to:

• seize and hold the initiative along the entire perimeter of hostilities,
• to conduct successive offensive operations in the whole territory of Ukraine's east, as a result of which the enemy achieved gradual tactical victories.

Putin's comments on June 7 confirm ISW's earlier assessment that limiting Western support would encourage Putin to continue creeping offensive operations indefinitely if faster operations that would lead to rapid, decisive results appear out of reach.

This strategy relies heavily on Russia's ability to maintain theater-wide initiative, which Ukrainian forces can seize if Ukraine resolves its current human resources problems and receives sufficient, timely, and consistent Western security assistance.

"Russian efforts to prevent Ukraine from accumulating the personnel and resources Ukraine needs to contest the initiative, therefore, are a part of an attritional war approach," American experts emphasize.

ISW continues to believe that Ukraine should seize this initiative as soon as possible, as Russian forces receive various benefits from holding the initiative, including the ability to conduct a war of attrition strategy.

Key ISW takeaways as of June 7

• Russian President Vladimir Putin articulated a theory of victory in Ukraine on June 7 that assumes that Russian forces will be able to continue gradual creeping advances indefinitely, prevent Ukraine from conducting successful operationally significant counteroffensive operations, and win a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces.
• Putin's theory of victory rests on Russia's ability to outlast and overcome pledged Western security assistance to Ukraine and Ukrainian efforts to mobilize more of its economy and population for the war effort, indicating that Putin likely assesses that Russian forces will be able to leverage their advantages in manpower and materiel to overwhelm on Ukrainian forces.
• Putin's theory of victory hinges on a critical assumption that the West will abandon Ukraine to Russian victory, either on its own accord or in response to Russian efforts to persuade the West to do so, and it is far from clear that the West will do so.
• Putin indirectly indicated that Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with Western-provided weapons do not cross a supposed Russian "red line" that would result in Russian nuclear escalation.
• Putin heavily focused on proposals to solve Russia's labor shortage issues during his speech at SPIEF on June 7.
• Putin attempted to frame Russia's economic issues in a positive light, likely to prepare Russian citizens to make more personal sacrifices as Russia sustains a protracted war in Ukraine at the expense of Russian citizens' standards of living.
• Putin continued efforts to portray Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an illegitimate president and identified the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada (parliament) as a legitimate actor with which the Kremlin can negotiate instead of Zelensky. Putin's recent statements are the latest in a series designed to obfuscate the legality of Zelensky's extended term by misrepresenting the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian laws.
• Putin attempted to introduce his children and the children of other senior Russian officials to the public sphere at SPIEF, likely to set conditions for them to eventually assume high-profile and powerful roles in the Russian government.
• US National Security Council Senior Director for Arms Control, Disarmament, and Nonproliferation Pranay Vaddi stated that the US has prepared a new nuclear weapons policy specifically to deter Russia, the People's Republic of China (PRC), North Korea, and Iran.
• The US Department of Defense (DoD) announced a $225 million security assistance package for Ukraine on June 7.
• French President Emmanuel Macron announced on June 6 that France will provide Ukraine with an unspecified number of Mirage 2000-5 fighter jets and equip and train a brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers.
• The Russian Supreme Court declared an organization that does not exist as "extremist" on June 7, consistent with previous ISW assessments that Russia seeks to expand the legal definition of "extremism" to increasingly prosecute domestic anti-war sentiment.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to destabilize the Balkans and dismantle the 1995 Dayton Accords that ended the 1992-1995 Bosnian War, likely as part of a larger strategic effort that seeks to divide and distract Europe.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Svatove, near Chasiv Yar, and northwest of Avdiivka.