Anti-aircraft defense and strike authorization against Russia to keep Kharkiv protected – ISW

According to analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, giving Ukraine anti-aircraft defense and removing limitations on targeting Russian territory with Western weapons would allow for the protection of Kharkiv and its surrounding area.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.

The provision of Western air defense systems and the lifting of restrictions on the use of Western-provided weapons against military targets on Russian territory remain critical for Ukraine to repel Russian strikes on the city of Kharkiv with cruise bombs and missiles.

A dozen Western countries have recently wholly or partially lifted restrictions on Ukraine's use of weapons provided by the West to strike military targets on Russian territory.

These policy changes will allow Ukrainian forces to use systems provided by the West to target Russian firing points and bridgeheads on border territories and in Russian airspace.

Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down several Russian warplanes in February 2024, many of which were flying glider bombs in the direction of Avdiivka.

The ability of Ukrainian forces to shoot down Russian warplanes in the front-line zone indicates that the Ukrainian troops are likely to be able to repeat the same actions using both Ukrainian and Western systems to protect the northern part of the Kharkiv region and the city of Kharkiv from Russian cruise missile strikes, which are launched from Russian airspace.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky previously stated that Russian troops would not be able to capture Kharkiv if Ukrainian troops received two Patriot anti-aircraft systems for deployment in the region.

In recent weeks, Russian forces have been launching glide bombs and various missile attacks on the city of Kharkiv. However, the two Patriot batteries in the north of the Kharkiv region will have limited success in protecting against Russian airstrikes if they cannot target Russian aircraft in Russian airspace.

ISW key findings as of June 2:

• Zelensky met with the US and Singaporean officials and highlighted the upcoming Global Peace Summit during the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on June 2.
• The provision of Western air defense systems and the lifting of Western restrictions on Ukraine's ability to strike military targets in Russian territory with Western-provided weapons remain crucial for Ukraine to repel Russian glide bomb and missile strikes against Kharkiv city.
• Ukrainian field commanders are reportedly compensating for training difficulties that mobilization has exacerbated by training new personnel on the frontline.
• Ukrainian field commanders' decisions to train newly deployed personnel on the front before committing them to combat indicates that the overall quality of Ukrainian forces will likely remain higher than that of Russian troops in the near- to mid-term.
• The New York Times (NYT) published an investigation on June 2 into the forced relocation and deportation of 46 Ukrainian children from a foster home in the occupied Kherson region in 2022.
• The Telegraph reported on June 1 in a since-removed article that British officials ordered the United Kingdom's (UK) Security Service (MI5) to refocus its counterintelligence efforts towards Russian, People's Republic of China (PRC), and Iranian agents operating in the UK.
• Russian war commentator Alexander Artamonov drew backlash from Kremlin-affiliated Russian propagandists for claiming that Ukrainians are "second-class citizens." contradicting the Kremlin's false efforts to portray Ukrainian and Russian people as one nation.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Avdiivka, DonetskcCity, and Krynky.
• Russia continues to indoctrinate Russian minors into military-political thinking to set conditions for long-term force generation.

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It should be noted that the head of the German-Ukrainian Situation Center of the Bundeswehr Major General Christian Freuding, said that Ukraine could shoot down planes in the airspace of the Russian Federation using the Patriot systems transferred by Germany.

As NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated, Ukraine defends itself against Russian aggression, and self-defense is legitimate under international law, so Kyiv has the right to strike targets on the aggressor's territory.