Фото: Фейсбук / Генштаб ЗСУ
This is the opinion of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Rubryka writes.
American analysts have studied data from which it follows that Russian troops began their offensive operation in the north of the Kharkiv region with limited forces and have not yet transferred significant reserves there.
This led to a decrease in the pace of Russian advance and offensive operations.
"This decreasing tempo is likely presenting Ukrainian forces with tactical opportunities to counterattack, although Ukrainian forces are not yet conducting a limited counteroffensive operation that aims to push Russian forces completely out of the northern Kharkiv region," experts noted in the report.
Russian troops are probably trying to bring the number of the Northern group to the planned final level before intensifying offensive operations in the north of the Kharkiv region. Such plans of the military command of the Russian Federation are evidenced by:
According to reports, about 35,000 Northern Group of Forces troops were in the border area when the offensive operations started on May 10, while Ukrainian sources indicated that the Russian military intended to concentrate 50,000 to 70,000 troops in the area.
American experts also suggest that Russian troops probably launched an offensive operation in the north of the Kharkiv region earlier than planned:
As indicated in the ISW review, the premature start of Russian offensive operations likely undermined Russian success in the north of the Kharkiv region.
Russian forces reportedly managed to catch Ukrainian forces off guard on May 10 and achieve significant tactical gains in areas that Ukrainian officials reported were less secure.
Ukraine's State Bureau of Investigation also announced that it has started an investigation into the improper preparation of Ukrainian defense in this area and the abandonment of Ukrainian positions in the Lyptsi and Vovchansk directions.
Detectives noted that this allowed Russian forces to advance to the area's second line of Ukrainian defense. However, limited manpower appears to have prevented Russian forces from achieving deeper penetration.
Although it is quite possible that the Russian military command believed that the concentration of larger forces would alert the Ukrainian troops and deprive them of the opportunity to carry out an operational surprise. It was Russia's decision not to immediately introduce significant reserves that probably prevented Russian forces from achieving rapid gains and deeper penetration.
"Ukrainian forces have now established themselves at defensive positions in the area, and Russian forces have likely expended their tactical opportunity to make relatively rapid gains against lightly-held positions in this area," the report added.
Key ISW takeaways as of May 25:
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