White House sees possibility of freezing war in Ukraine à la "Korean scenario" – NYT
Photo: The New York Times
To cease the fire, Ukraine and the Russian Federation could engage in peace talks within a few months. This "Korean scenario" appears to be a realistic option.
The White House officials stated this in a conversation with The New York Times.
As the speakers pointed out, the current fighting is reminiscent of what it was like 18 months ago, and it will probably continue in the same manner for another 18 months.
"The Biden administration is increasingly feeling that the coming months will be critical, as there is potential for the two sides to reach a negotiated armistice, similar to the one that ended active fighting in Korea in 1953," the article reads.
Officials of the Biden administration are convinced that the new Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region "changes the trajectory of the war in Ukraine":
- On the one hand, they are confident that Ukraine will be able to withstand these territorial losses with the help of aid. Additionally, US officials are expecting this to happen in July. They also acknowledge that the personnel at the front in Ukraine will grow in number and become younger.
- On the other hand, the speakers refrain from making any predictions on the potential location of the front line, even in the coming months. It remains uncertain if Zelensky can carry out his long-delayed counteroffensive next year.
The biggest concern for Washington is that Russia is replacing the weapons destroyed in the first 27 months of the war and reestablishing its positions:
"Russia often starts its wars badly and ends them well," the officials noted.
In addition, according to the publication, Biden is concerned that the Russian Federation has concluded this war by determining which technologies have performed well and which ones have performed poorly and achieving technological successes in countering American weapons.
At the same time, Biden, as before, opposes Macron's idea of deploying troops to Ukraine.
"This year is a window of opportunity for Russia. But unless the Russian military can turn these advantages into combat gains and gain momentum, there is a good chance that window will begin to close as we enter 2025," said Michael Kofman, an expert on Russia from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
For reference:
As Rubryka reported, on April 20, the Kremlin announced that it had handed over a document with "absolutely clear wording."
"Our draft document, which includes absolutely clear wording, has been handed over to the Ukrainian side. The ball is in their court. We are waiting for a response," said the Russian president's press secretary.
At the same time, Peskov once again stated that "the Ukrainian side constantly deviates from its previously given agreements, its words, and constantly changes them."
As Rubryka later wrote, President Volodymyr Zelensky did not confirm that Ukraine had received a draft document from Russia as part of the negotiations on ending the war.
"I am sure that nothing was handed over to us," Zelensky emphasized.
He also commented on Dmitry Peskov's words, "the ball is in Kyiv's court."
"In principle, I used to play football quite well. What are the rules there: there must be two teams, and there must be a ball. Here, it seems to me that Peskov is playing football with himself. We will definitely show how we hit on the goal as soon as they give us the ball," added Zelensky.
Later, on May 17, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that negotiations with Ukraine had ended.
On May 15, 2024, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announced that Russia is ready to negotiate with Ukraine regarding the war, but only on terms that will be beneficial to the Russian Federation. But such peace plans, says Putin, are rejected by Ukraine and the West.
