Russian troops probably focus on establishing buffer zone, not advancing further into Kharkiv region – ISW

On May 13, Russian troops continued tactically significant offensives to the north and northeast of the city of Kharkiv. It appears that their primary focus is on quickly establishing a "buffer zone" along the border with Ukraine.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.

According to American analysts, the Russian troops have been moving quickly in Vovchansk, and there have been reports of multiple bridges being destroyed across vital rivers.

They note that during the past day, May 13, Russian troops continued tactically significant offensives to the north and northeast of Kharkiv. Analysts have not yet recorded confirmation that the enemy crossed to the southern bank of the Vovcha River in Vovchansk or its immediate surroundings.

However, on May 12, the Russians hit the bridges over the river to the west and east of the city, and the day before, they began shelling the river crossings and logistics routes in Vovchansk itself.

The ISW could not clearly establish why the Russian army targeted the bridges, as they are needed for the transition, ensuring stable logistics across the river and further offensive operations deep into the north of the Kharkiv region.

^{Photo: ISW}

The ISW noted that the Russian forces are trying to create a "buffer zone" and not penetrate deep, as the institute previously estimated.

"These factors indicate that the Russians are likely trying to create a promised 'buffer zone' in the border area instead of advancing deep into the Kharkiv region or towards Kharkiv," the ISW report says.

American experts note that the 10-kilometer buffer zone in the Kharkiv region will simultaneously bring Russian troops closer to Kharkiv within range of barrel artillery and remove the main Russian logistics centers from the reach of this type of artillery.

ISW key findings as of May 13:

• Russian forces' relatively rapid rate of advances in Vovchansk and their reported destruction of several bridges across key waterways within the settlement suggest that the Russian troops are prioritizing the creation of a "buffer zone" over a deeper penetration, as ISW previously assessed they would.
• Newly appointed Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu participated in his first Security Council meeting as secretary on May 13, amid continued reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin is focusing on mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to support a protracted war in Ukraine.
• Putin's decision to remove Shoigu from the Russian MoD appears to have also opened the door for the departure of certain Shoigu affiliates from the MoD, likely one of the intended effects of Putin's recent cabinet reshuffles.
• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted successful missile strikes against a Russian air defense base in occupied Crimea and successful drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure in Russia.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Lyptsi and Vovchansk in the northern Kharkiv region.
• The Russian military may intensify efforts to recruit conscripts through the Russian Volunteer Society for Assistance to the Army, Aviation, and Navy of Russia (DOSAAF) as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.