Russian troops ramp up ground attacks in the east of Ukraine in recent weeks – ISW

The Russian Federation's troops have significantly intensified their ground attacks in the east of Ukraine within the past month.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports that.

The Russian military probably wants to progress before Western aid arrives on the front lines.

According to Lt. Col. Nazar Voloshyn, spokesperson for the Khortytsia armed forces unit, the number of combat operations significantly rose from 84 on May 8 to 146 on May 9. He noted that the majority of these operations were concentrated within the Khortytsia group's area of responsibility, spanning from the Kharkiv region to the border of the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.

The UK Ministry of Defense reported that the number of Russian attacks increased by 17 percent between March and April 2024. Over 75 percent of recorded ground attacks occurred on the Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, and Mariinka fronts.

In particular, the number of Russian attacks near Chasiv Yar increased by 200 percent from March to April.

Voloshin proposed that the recent escalation in Russian attacks is due to the dry ground after the spring season, making it easier for mechanized maneuvers. He also mentioned that Russian forces are attempting to exploit Ukraine's vulnerability while it awaits Western assistance.

ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will maintain a high rate of attack throughout eastern Ukraine to gain an advantage before Western aid arrives in Ukraine.

ISW key findings as of May 9:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin used his May 9 Victory Day speech to relitigate his belief that the West is attempting to erase the Soviet Union's contributions to defeating Nazi Germany during the Great Patriotic War (Second World War), a grievance that is at the core of Russia's adversarial perceptions of the West.
• Putin seized on a recent meeting with the commanders of several frontline Russian formations to portray himself as an informed and effective Supreme Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Armed Forces, aware of the intricacies of the frontline situation and involved in finding solutions to issues that plague Russian forces.
• Putin surrounded himself with several foreign officials at the Victory Day parade, likely to posture himself as a practical statesman capable of galvanizing an alternative coalition to the power structures of the collective West.
• Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed that the Moldovan government is engaged in a Nazi-like "genocide" in Moldova — a notable inflection in Kremlin officials' rhetoric about Moldova that is likely meant to set conditions for a Russian effort to secure control over Moldova and not just some of its regions.
• The leaders of the pro-Kremlin Moldovan Victory opposition electoral bloc attended the Victory Day parade in Moscow, further indicating that the Kremlin intends to use these actors to destabilize all of Moldova and attack Moldova's democracy and EU accession process.
• Russian forces have markedly increased the rate of ground attacks in eastern Ukraine over the past month, likely reflecting current battlefield conditions and the intent of the Russian military command to secure gains before the arrival of Western military aid to the frontlines.
• Russian border guards are withdrawing from much of Armenia as Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan continues to face domestic backlash for decisions regarding Nagorno-Karabakh.
• The Kremlin may seek to capitalize on opposition outrage in Armenia to punish Pashinyan for increasingly pulling away from Russia.
• Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) conducted long-range drone strikes against Russian oil depots and refinery infrastructure in Krasnodar Krai and the Republic of Bashkortostan on May 9.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and Donetsk City.
• Russian forces continue to struggle with discipline in their ranks, with some Russian soldiers reportedly killing other members of their units.

For reference:

On May 9, the most intense fighting took place on the Bakhmut and Avdiivka fronts. The Ukrainian Defense Forces successfully defended against 36 attacks in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, while the enemy, supported by aviation, attempted to gain a better tactical position. Overall, there were 95 combat encounters on the front lines that day.

Also, the day before, soldiers of Ukraine's armed forces blocked the occupiers on the territory of the refractory plant in Krasnohorivka after the enemy broke into the enterprise.

According to the Ukrainian military, the Russian invaders who broke into the refractory plant in Krasnohorivka are still trapped there. The city has ongoing fighting, but the situation is currently under control.

Additionally, Ukraine's intelligence unit, Kraken, demonstrated the ongoing Russian attacks and how it is defending the city of Chasiv Yar.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian intelligence does not exclude the possibility that Chasiv Yar will ultimately be lost, but for now, the country's armed forces are trying to prevent it.

In addition, the Ukrainian military has expressed that Russian forces will struggle to make further progress towards Kramatorsk and Kostiantynivka without gaining control of Chasiv Yar.