Russia uses Belarus' nuclear readiness verification to cut Western aid to Ukraine – ISW
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The sudden announcement of a nuclear readiness test in Belarus, coinciding with Russia's actions, appears to be an attempt further to pressure the West regarding their military support for Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.
American analysts point out that Belarus' announcement on May 7 of a surprise nuclear readiness test is likely part of the Kremlin's campaign to influence decision-making in the West.
As noted, Lukashenko, who issued an order on the participation of Belarusian troops in a joint inspection with the Russian Federation of carriers, forces, and means of non-strategic nuclear weapons within the borders of the Union State, repeated the standard rhetoric regarding:
- the Belarusian nuclear deterrence doctrine,
- the desire to avoid joining the war against Ukraine.
"Lukashenko's announcement comes a day after the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced preparations for non-strategic (tactical) nuclear weapons exercises to "practice the preparation and use" of tactical nuclear weapons, and is likely meant to bolster the Kremlin's effort to coerce the West into self-deterring from providing additional military assistance to Ukraine," American experts believe.
According to their assessment, neither Russia nor Belarus "aspires to nuclear escalation, and their use of nuclear weapons remains unlikely."
The ISW also draws attention to the statement of the US Ministry of Defense dated May 6 that no changes have been observed in the deployment of Russian strategic nuclear forces despite Russia's "irresponsible rhetoric."
For reference:
It was previously reported that on May 6, Putin threatened the West with Russia's "technical readiness" to start a nuclear war.
Andrii Yusov, a representative of Ukraine's intelligence, commenting on Russia's intentions to conduct training on the use of tactical nuclear weapons, stated that nuclear blackmail is a stable practice of the Putin regime.
It should be noted that in March 2023, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin announced that he had agreed with the self-proclaimed president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, to deploy tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of the Republic of Belarus. At the same time, the head of the Kremlin talked about the transfer of the Iskander missile complex, which can carry nuclear weapons, to the Belarusian military.
Already on May 25, Lukashenko announced the beginning of the transfer of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus. Neither Western countries nor Belarusian monitoring channels confirmed such information.
A month later, CNN reported, citing unnamed representatives of American intelligence, that the United States had no doubts about relocating the first shipment of Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus.
