Russian forces pause to prepare for advance towards Toretsk, Donetsk region – ISW
{Photo: social media
The Russian occupying forces have halted their progress. They are now gathering reserves in an attempt to continue their advance from their presence in Avdiivka towards Toretsk as part of their ongoing offensive operations near Chasiv Yar.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this.
According to American analysts, on April 30, the occupiers did not carry out any confirmed attacks in the Avdiivka area for the first time in several days.
At the same time, Ukrainian sources reported that in the direction of Bakhmut-Chasiv Yar, Russian troops carried out more attacks than near Avdiivka.
According to experts from ISW, the April 30 morning and evening briefings of Ukraine's General Staff reported 47 Russian attacks on the Avdiivka front and 57 on the Bakhmut front, which were successfully repelled by Ukrainian troops. Additionally, the Russians carried out considerably more attacks towards Chasiv Yar.
One day's reporting is not enough to establish a pattern, but it may indicate that Russian forces are somewhat slowing the pace of attacks around Avdiivka.
As the Institute for the Study of War analysts predicted, the Russians also resumed offensive actions around Chasiv Yar.
Photo: ISW
From around 20 April, Russian forces focused on building tactical success near Ocheretine (northwest of Avdiivka) and Novokalynovo (north of Avdiivka). Still, as of 30 April, the pace of confirmed advances appeared to have slowed.
Russian forces may decide to advance from their salient north of Avdiivka towards Toretsk to supplement Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, which would likely require Russian troops to take a tactical pause to concentrate forces for the offensive.
Chasiv Yar is a strategically significant location, as it will serve as a launching point for Russian forces to conduct attacks on Druzhkivka and Kostiantynivka, which serve as critical strongholds for the four major cities of Donetsk.
However, Russian forces will likely need a longer pause to reinforce existing units and redeploy additional troops to the Ocheretine area if they decide to try to advance north to the Toretsk area.
ISW key findings as of April 30:
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a short-range MGM-140 ATACMS strike against targets in occupied Crimea on the night of April 29 to 30.
- Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin expressed outrage over Russian authorities' treatment of Central Asian migrants, particularly Tajik citizens, indicating that increased Russian efforts to control migrants living in and entering Russia following the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack are continuing to strain Tajik-Russian relations.
- Former Georgian Prime Minister and founder of the Georgian Dream political party Bidzina Ivanishvili reiterated a series of standard Kremlin information operations during his first public speech since announcing his return to Georgian public politics in December 2023.
- Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Kreminna, Chasiv Yar, and Robotyne.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on April 30 that Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov and First Deputy Defense Minister Ruslan Tsalikov inspected a drone testing ground in an unspecified area of occupied Ukraine.
- An investigation by Russian opposition outlet Vazhnye Istorii implicates Kremlin-appointed Russian Commissioner on Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova and her sister in the deportation of special needs Ukrainian adults to Russia.
For reference:
The head of Ukraine's intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, announced a challenging period for Ukraine and gave a new "forecast" of the development of events. He specified that a rather difficult situation awaits Ukraine from the middle of May to the beginning of June. However, it will not be catastrophic.
In his turn, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, announced the aggravation of the situation at the front and Russia's attempt to seize the strategic initiative.
It is worth adding that the Russian occupying forces may increase their attacks, taking advantage of the time needed to deliver new security assistance to Ukraine from the United States of America.
According to experts at the Institute for the Study of War, the Defense Forces' withdrawal from positions in Berdychi, Semenivka, and Novomykhailivka is not aiding the Russian invaders in quickly achieving tactical success. It is also unlikely that the Russians will be able to make significant operational progress in this area shortly.
In addition, for future offensive operations near Avdiivka, Russian troops can choose between several tactical directions, but it remains unclear where they will focus their efforts shortly.
