Russia may alter attack tactics and ramp up strikes on Ukraine before US weapons transfer – ISW

The Russian Federation may increase its shelling of Ukraine, as well as change the targets of attacks to hit transport infrastructure, logistics, and military depots.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.

American analysts believe that the Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu's statements about Russia's potential plans to escalate its attacks suggest that the invaders may alter their targets.

"Russian forces will likely intensify drone and missile strikes in the coming weeks to maximize damage to Ukrainian infrastructure and defense industrial base capacity before the expected arrival of US security assistance begins to alleviate Ukraine's critical shortage of air defense missiles," experts say.

In addition, ISW suggests that Russian forces may intensify offensive operations in the coming weeks before military aid arrives in Ukraine from the United States.

"Shoigu's focus on Russian offensive operations near Chasiv Yar, west of Avdiivka, and west and southwest of Donetsk City further indicates that Russian forces will likely intensify assaults in these areas," the report emphasized.

Analysts also recalled the attack on transport infrastructure facilities in the Dnipropetrovsk region on April 19.

They suggest that the Russians may repeat and expand these strikes in the coming weeks to disrupt Ukrainian landlines of communication.

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ISW notes that the Kremlin has intensified strikes and information operations against the residents of Kharkiv to persuade Ukrainians to flee the city and displace millions of people within the country.

In his turn, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's intelligence, announced a very difficult period for Ukraine and gave a new "forecast" of the development of events.

He specified that Ukraine will face a rather difficult situation from the middle of May to the beginning of June. However, it will not be catastrophic.

It should be added that the Russian occupation forces may increase their attacks by taking advantage of the time needed to deliver new security assistance to Ukraine from the United States of America.