Ukraine will not be able to repel Russian offensive without US assistance — ISW

Russian occupation forces, even poorly equipped, will be able to launch an offensive if the United States of America delays or does not provide military aid to Ukraine.

Rubryka writes about this, referring to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report.

American analysts note that the Russian army's current offensive operations scheme allows some of its units participating in less intensive operations to rest and recover.

Therefore, according to the ISW, Russian units, after recovery or rest, can intensify efforts in another operational direction:

• forcing Ukrainian forces to redistribute their defense resources throughout the war zone,
• creating vulnerabilities that Russian forces can exploit.

"Russian forces are reportedly developing operational- and strategic-level reserves capable of sustaining ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine, likely to support an anticipated spring-summer offensive effort.

These reserves are unlikely to be ready to act as a first-echelon penetration force or second-echelon exploitation force capable of conducting large-scale mechanized assaults in 2024 as long as Ukrainian forces have the wherewithal to resist them," the analysts write.

As ISW noted, the Russian forces would likely use these reserves to supplement or reinforce existing formations and continue the attritional infantry-led attacks with occasional limited throws of mechanized equipment in their chosen direction at key junctures.

"However, If the United States does not resume providing aid to Ukraine and Ukrainian forces continue to lack essential artillery and air defense munitions in particular, however, even badly-trained and poorly-equipped Russian troops might be able to conduct successful offensive operations," summarized at the Institute for the Study of War.

It is worth adding that, according to the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Syrskyi, the situation on the Eastern Front has significantly worsened in recent days because Russian troops have significantly intensified their offensive actions after the presidential elections in the Russian Federation.

ISW Key Takeaways as of April 13:

• Russian forces are pursuing at least three operational-level efforts that are not mutually reinforcing but let Russian forces prioritize grinding, tactical gains on a single sector of their choice at a time. Ukrainian forces will increasingly struggle to defend against these Russian efforts the longer Ukraine lacks further US military assistance.
• The offensive effort to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances as the seizure of the town would likely allow Russian forces to launch subsequent offensive operations against the cities that form in effect a significant Ukrainian defensive belt in Donetsk region.
• Russian threats to Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka are very operationally significant since these "fortress" cities help form the backbone of the Ukrainian defense in Donetsk Oblast and of eastern Ukraine in general.
• Russian forces may not be able to seize Chasiv Yar rapidly and would likely struggle to leverage its operational significance immediately as long as Ukrainian forces have the resources needed to hold their positions.
• Germany announced that it will immediately transfer another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine in response to recent very urgent Ukrainian requests for additional Patriot systems to defend against the increased Russian strike campaign and ongoing Ukrainian efforts to expand Ukraine's air defense capabilities.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and Donetsk City.