Russian military may plan spring offensive on one of operational fronts – ISW

Photo: General Staff of Ukraine's armed forces

Maria Ignatenko

Experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that Russia may be planning a major attack in the western part of the Donetsk region in late spring or summer. They also believe that Russian forces can only push forward on one front of operations.

ISW reported this.

It is noted that the Russian command may focus its projected offensive operation in the late spring or summer of 2024 in the west of the Donetsk region, hoping to take advantage of the steady but small advance of Russian forces in this sector.

Recently, Ukrainian officials have issued a warning about the increasing presence of Russian troops along the Kharkiv-Luhansk route, as well as near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and in the western Zaporizhzhia region. However, experts from ISW believe that Russian forces will only be able to carry out a large-scale offensive on one front, as their human resources and planning capabilities limit them.

The report notes that Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a Russian battalion mechanized attack near Avdiivka on March 30 – the first one since Russian forces began their campaign to capture Avdiivka in late October 2023.

According to reports, on March 30, Russian forces, including units from the Russian 6th Tank Regiment (90th Tank Division, Central Military District), launched a major mechanized attack near Tonenke, involving 36 tanks and 12 infantry fighting vehicles.

At the same time, as noted, during the assault, Ukrainian forces destroyed 12 Russian tanks and eight infantry fighting vehicles, and the frontal assault failed to break through the Ukrainian front line.

According to analysts, Ukraine's ability to defend against the attack on March 30, particularly near Avdiivka, where Ukrainian troops were forced to hastily retreat and establish new defense lines following the loss of a populated area, is a promising sign of its ability to withstand future major Russian assaults and the anticipated offensive in the summer of 2024.

At the same time, the readiness of the Russian military command to involve a battalion of tanks in the offensive near Avdiivka indicates that this offensive is a priority for the Russians.

ISW key findings as of March 31:

• The Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP) reportedly directed all its clergy to change their liturgy to include pro-war prayers in support of Russia's war of conquest against Ukraine and is likely threatening to defrock ROC MP clergy who do not support the war.
• The ROC MP leadership has intensified internal scrutiny against ROC MP clergy. It has reportedly defrocked several clergy members who refused to promote Kremlin-introduced prayers supporting Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
• Russia conducted another series of missile and drone strikes primarily targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of March 30 to 31 as delays in US security assistance continued to degrade Ukraine's air defense umbrella and enable Russia to damage Ukraine's energy grid significantly.
• Ukrainian forces appear to have repelled a Russian battalion-sized mechanized assault near Avdiivka, Donetsk region, on March 30 — the first battalion-sized mechanized assault since Russian forces began the campaign to seize Avdiivka in late October 2023.
• French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu announced on March 31 that France will provide an unspecified number of Aster 30 surface-to-air missiles and "hundreds" of armored vehicles and other equipment to Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed on March 31 the scheduled decree authorizing Russia's semi-annual spring military conscription, which will conscript 150,000 Russians between April 1 and July 15.
• The Russian military command reportedly appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces Colonel General Alexander Lapin as the newly formed Leningrad Military District (LMD) commander.
• The Kremlin continues efforts to enforce Russian federal laws in post-Soviet countries where Russia has no legal jurisdiction.
• Russian authorities conducted a counterterrorism operation and detained suspected terrorists in the Republic of Dagestan on March 31.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and southwest of Donetsk City on March 31.
• The Russian government continues to fail to adequately compensate volunteer and irregular forces fighting in Ukraine despite recently passing new legislation that simplifies the access to veteran statuses for these service members and their families.