Russian defense clusters will not fully meet needs of war in 2024 – UK intelligence

Russian defense industry significantly increased production last year, but is unable to fully meet the needs of military operations against Ukraine, the UK intelligence report states.

Although limited to fully meeting the needs of Russian operations against Ukraine, the state's clusters can almost certainly provide a material advantage over Ukraine in 2024.

"The Russian defense industry significantly increased production in 2023. This was achieved by increasing the number of personnel to approximately 3.5 million, increasing the number of shifts and expanding existing production lines, and returning idle production facilities to service." 

British intelligence experts point out that a significant part of the increase in production is "due to the reconstruction and modernization of existing stocks, not new production."

As noted in the report, the vast majority of main battle tanks produced in 2023 consisted of refurbished vehicles.

There is also a significant increase in the production of artillery ammunition in Russia in 2023 and an even greater increase in 2024.

"However, in the next 12 months, ammunition production is likely to peak due to limited production capacity."

Ukraine's intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov noted that since the end of last year, Russia has been producing more ammunition, but its quality is declining.

"Compared to previous years, since the end of summer 2023, we have seen an increase in the number of ammunition produced by Russia. At the same time, we note a decline in the quality of these shells."

Russian missiles have some disadvantages, including frequent misses but Ukrainian forces are responding by targeting military bases.

The New York Times reported that Russia had managed to circumvent sanctions and export controls imposed by the West. The state has increased its missile production, even exceeding pre-war levels.

The head of the President's Office, Andriy Yermak, said that the effectiveness of the sanctions imposed on Russia depends on whether it will be able to continue to produce missiles and kill Ukrainians with them.