Ammunition lack will force Ukraine to choose which territories to hold – ISW

A significant shortage of ammunition may force Ukrainian troops to make difficult decisions about prioritizing certain sections of the frontline: choosing where territorial losses are the least devastating, ISW report says.

Analysts believe that the lack of artillery ammunition and delays in Western security assistance build up uncertainty in Ukraine's operational plans.

Open-source investigations indicate that Russian forces are taking advantage of the ammunition hunger and inability to conduct sufficient counter-battery warfare.

The Ukrainian analytical group Frontelligence Insight stated that Russian troops had previously set up stationary artillery firing positions from late 2022 to early 2023, when a lack of ammunition limited Ukrainian counter-battery capabilities.

Frontelligence stated that Russian forces began concentrating their artillery in a similar manner in January 2024, indicating that Ukraine is once again experiencing a shortage of artillery ammunition.

Ukraine's intelligence believes that troops can sometimes strike at Russian artillery, but generally lack ammunition to conduct effective counter-battery fire.

According to frontline data, it allows Russian artillery to destroy settlements, making it virtually impossible for Ukrainian forces to defend them.

Many Ukrainian drones lack the range to engage the numerous Russian artillery pieces deployed 15 to 24 kilometers from the front line.

Western and Ukrainian officials have recently emphasized the need for artillery ammunition.

Key takeaways from ISW report

• Open-source investigations indicate that Russian forces are benefitting from Ukraine's ammunition shortage and inability to conduct sufficient counterbattery warfare.
• US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller reiterated on 1 February that Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly indicated that he has not changed his aims to capture and subjugate Ukraine.
• Russian military bloggers and ultranationalist figures continue to present themselves as impartial and constructive critics of the Russian military in juxtaposition to official Kremlin sources in the Russian information space.
• Kremlin affiliates reportedly launched an information campaign wherein prominent social media influencers promote the Russian Orthodox Church.
• Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia region's border area amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on 2 February.