ISW: Russian forces may ramp up efforts to seize Kupyansk in Kharkiv region

The Russian occupying forces are not ready for large-scale offensive operations in the Kharkiv region. Still, they may intensify efforts to capture Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region in the coming weeks.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports this.

As American analysts note, Ukrainian officials have stated that Russian troops aim to capture Kupyansk and Borova (35 km west of Svatove) in the winter of 2024.

ISW reports that the capture of these cities is likely to:

• dislodge Ukrainian troops from the eastern bank of the Oskil River in the Kharkiv region,
• create conditions for future Russian offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.

The pace of Russian operations on the Kupyansk front and the obvious configuration of Russian forces in the occupied Luhansk and Kharkiv regions generally do not indicate the approach of a Russian offensive operation along the entire Kupyansk-Lyman line.

The head of the Kharkiv regional state administration, Oleh Synehubov, responded to "The Telegraph," noting that Russian troops are not concentrating in the Kharkiv region as part of preparations for a large-scale offensive.

Synehubov also noted that Russian forces are using the slowed pace of operations caused by bad weather conditions to transfer reinforcements to the front line and train and coordinate units.

Military analysts have noted that Russian forces have not amassed sufficient power in the Belgorod region of Russia to initiate major offensive actions in other areas of the north or northeast of the Kharkiv region.

It is worth noting that Ukrainian officials did not publicly report the sudden build-up of Russian forces on the Kupyansk front.

According to military analysts, the Russians have a grouping of forces in the area that appears less degraded than other Russian groups. Therefore, it is likely that the Russian troops have conditions that contribute to activating operations on the Kupyansk front (Kharkiv and Luhansk regions).

The invaders intend to make territorial gains in areas that are more important from an operational point of view than the areas that Russian forces are currently trying to capture.

Russian forces appear to be gradually rebuilding units that suffered significant losses during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in September 2022 and the failed Russian offensive in winter-spring 2023.

The Russian command intends to use these relatively well-rested and restored units to intensify local offensive operations launched in October 2023.

Russian troops operating in the Kupyansk direction and consisting mainly of the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Combined Arms Army (both – Western Military District) have not taken an active part in major offensive operations since the culmination of the Russian winter-spring offensive in April 2023.

The troops of the Russian Federation, mainly from the Western Military District, were transferred to the Kupyansk front. Thus, they have a certain organizational coherence, unlike Russian troops in other parts of Ukraine, which are often transferred from different military districts and airborne units.

The relative coherence of the grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation forces in the Kupyansk direction ensures more effective command and control of these forces.

It remains unclear whether these elements of the Russian Armed Forces can conduct large-scale offensive operations significantly more effectively than the disorganized and expensive Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka.

ISW Key Findings for January 5:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Russian targets in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai on the night of January 4 to 5.
• Russian forces conducted Shahed 131/136 drone strikes and missile strikes against frontline areas in Ukraine overnight on January 5.
• Germany announced a new military assistance package to Ukraine on January 4.
• The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will convene on January 10 and discuss Russia's reported use of North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine, a likely violation of UNSC resolutions.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov strangely offered to exchange 20 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) for lifting sanctions against his family members.
• The Moscow Arbitration Court ordered Google to unblock four YouTube channels belonging to Russian state-affiliated channel 5TV on January 5, likely as part of an ongoing effort to consolidate control over the Russian information space ahead of the March presidential elections.
• Russian forces made a confirmed advance near Avdiivka as positional engagements continued along the entire frontline.
• International sanctions are reportedly impeding Russia's Su-34 aircraft production.
• The Kremlin continues to solidify federal administrative oversight of local and regional occupation administrations in occupied Ukraine.