Russia’s massive attack is the result of earlier experiments with combined strikes – ISW

Russia's massive missile attack on December 29 was the result of months of experimentation drones and missiles to test and bypass Ukraine's air defenses, the ISW report says.

The ISW says that in the fall of 2022 and winter of 2022-2023, Russian troops had already attempted massive strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure to destroy the power system.

This attempt failed, but now Russian forces have chosen the tactic of regular strikes against Ukraine, which are still designed to undermine morale and cause additional costs to Ukraine.

US analysts note that in recent months, Russian forces have conducted a series of missile and drone strikes of varying scale. They used various combinations of drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.

In most of the latest attacks, the occupiers used either exclusively drones, or drones with fewer missiles.

According to an October 21 ISW assessment, Russian forces are trying to diversify their mix of missiles, guided bombs, and drones to identify weaknesses in Ukrainian air defenses and optimize their strike for greater effectiveness.

Analysts believe that Russia deliberately accumulated missiles of different sizes during the fall and early winter of 2023 to hit Ukraine with a more diverse set of weapons and apply lessons learned from previous attacks.

ISW reports that during this attack, Ukrainian air defenses were unable to intercept Kh-22/Kh-32 missiles, S-300 and Iskander-M ballistic missiles, hypersonic ballistic missiles Kinzhal (X-47), anti-radar missiles X-31P, and X-59 cruise missiles.

The report also noted that Russia will continue to launch massive strikes against Ukraine in an attempt to undermine its morale and ability to sustain resistance to Russian aggression.