Russians reduced aerial activity after Ukrainian military downed Su-34 bomber jets – ISW

After Ukrainian forces shot down three Russian Su-34 planes in the south between December 21 and 22, Russian military activity and the use of guided bombs in Ukraine have decreased, according to a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Rubryka reports.

Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets stated on December 24 that Russian forces are limiting the use of manned aviation near the occupied Crimea, especially in the northwest region of the Black Sea.

According to ISW's preliminary assessment, the recent increase in the use of guided bombs by Russian forces against Ukrainian positions on the western (right) bank of the Dnipro might be due to Ukrainian reports of suppressing Russian long-range artillery in that area.

The institute's analysts note that a further reduction in Russian airstrikes in the Kherson region could give Ukrainian forces the opportunity to operate more freely in rear areas on the western bank of the Kherson region and secure a safer position on the eastern (left) bank for potential future operations if the Ukrainian command decides to do so.

Reports suggest that Russian forces are using guided bomb strikes to keep their aircraft at a distance of 50 to 70 kilometers from the front line. The decrease in the use of guided bombs by Russian forces indicates concerns about the capabilities of Ukrainian air defense following recent losses.

As of December 24, Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the eastern (left) bank of the Kherson region, but neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have confirmed advances in this area. A Russian correspondent claims that Russian forces failed to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the foothold in Krynky over the past week due to effective Ukrainian drones and electronic warfare systems.

Key findings from ISW as of December 24:

• The EU's High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in a limited territorial victory in Ukraine and will continue the war until "final victory."
• Russian forces are reducing aviation activity and the use of guided bombs in Ukraine following the downing of three Russian Su-34 planes in the south of Ukraine from December 21 to 22.
• Russian troops carried out a series of drone and missile strikes in Ukraine overnight from December 23 to 24.
• Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umierov detailed Ukraine's efforts to create a resilient wartime force and an effective defense-industrial base in an interview published on December 24.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to portray himself as a compassionate leader caring for the well-being of Russian servicemen and presents himself as an effective commander-in-chief of Russian armed forces.
• Russia seems to continue efforts to build up military occupation forces in Ukraine, separate from its front-line units, using newly formed units of the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardia).
• The 810th Marine Infantry Brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet revised its acknowledgment of intentionally using chemical weapons in Ukraine, likely attempting to conceal evidence of a clear violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, of which Russia is a party.
• A labor shortage in Russia, partly a consequence of the war in Ukraine, reportedly amounted to around 4.8 million people in 2023, and the Kremlin is likely to intensify efforts to increase Russia's economic potential.
• Russian forces confirmed advancements near Kreminna and Avdiivka, with positional battles continuing along the entire contact line.
• The newly formed 337th Airborne Regiment (VDB) of the 104th VDB Division, operating on the eastern (left) bank of the Kherson region near Krynky, continues to suffer losses.
• Russian officials claim that Russia has sufficient control over the situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) despite recent dangerous incidents during the Russian occupation of the plant.

Rubryka reported that on December 22, Ukrainian forces destroyed three Su-34 aircraft on the southern front.

On December 24, Ukrainian Air Defense Forces destroyed two fighter-bombers, Su-34 and Su-30.