Russian troops make slight advance near Mariinka, Bakhmut, and Avdiivka – ISW

On December 15, the Russian forces continued progressing near Bakhmut, Avdiivka, and Mariinka, achieving slight gains in these locations.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that.

ISW key findings for December 15:

• The German publication BILD, citing intelligence and sources, stated on December 14 that Russia plans to occupy Ukrainian territory outside the four illegally annexed Ukrainian regions during 2024-2026.
• Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called on Ukraine to start negotiations with Russia sooner rather than later.
• On December 15, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, published an article entitled "There is a path to victory in Ukraine." In it, he argues that Ukraine's military goals remain feasible despite increasingly pessimistic discussions in the West.
• Russian troops launched a series of missile and drone strikes on Ukraine on the night of December 14-15.
• Germany announced new military and humanitarian aid packages to Ukraine on December 14.
• Russian troops continued their offensive in the area of Kupiansk, in the northeast and near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, to the west and southwest of Donetsk, in the border area of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, in the west of Zaporizhia region, and confirmed the offensive in several directions.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has underlined Russia's intention to build a high-speed railway in occupied Ukraine, hours after Ukrainian guerrillas damaged a key railway line in the occupied Zaporizhzhia region.

It should be noted that American experts stated that on December 15, Russian troops continued localized offensive operations near Bakhmut and achieved confirmed successes. Geolocation footage released on December 11 shows that Russian troops have recently advanced northwest of Klishchiivka (7 km southwest of Bakhmut).

Russian sources are increasingly characterizing the localized Russian offensive operation around Bakhmut as an operation around Chasiv Yar (12 km west of Bakhmut). Russian military bloggers characterized the Russian attacks west of Bakhmut in Bohdanivka and Khromove and south of Bakhmut in Klishchiivka and Andriivka as an organized offensive on Chasiv Yar.

They also noted that encircling Chasiv Yar would be difficult due to extensive Ukrainian fortifications and the settlement's location at a tactical height. ISW estimates that Russian forces are at least nine kilometers from Chasiv Yar.

On December 15, Russian troops continued their offensive in the Avdiivka area and advanced. Geolocation footage released on December 15 shows Russian troops advancing nearby:

• Stepove (3 km north of Avdiivka),
• Pervomaiske (11 km southwest of Avdiivka).

Russian military bloggers have claimed that Russian troops have advanced near the railway line north of Stepove and recently captured positions in the forest area north of Stepove.

On December 15, Russian troops continued offensive operations to the west and southwest of the city of Donetsk and achieved confirmed successes. Geolocation images published on December 13 show that Russian troops have advanced in western Mariinka (west of the city of Donetsk).

Ukrainian and Russian sources said that Ukrainian troops struck the occupied Mariupol of the Donetsk region on December 14. Geolocation images published on December 14 and 15 show a powerful fire in two places in Mariupol, including the "Port City" shopping center.

Petro Andriushenko, an adviser to the mayor of Mariupol, said that the second Ukrainian attack was on the "Port City" shopping center, where Russian troops were storing military equipment, including components of the air defense system.

It should be noted that the Defense Forces of Ukraine are restraining the enemy on the Mariinka front in the Donetsk region, and the city's defense continues.

In addition, the day before, air defense systems were also operating in the temporarily occupied Crimea; a series of explosions rang out in the temporarily occupied Henichesk of the Kherson region on the evening of Friday, December 15. Representatives of the so-called "administration" of the invaders talked about a massive rocket attack.