ISW: Russian troops want to intensify their offensive before presidential election

Despite the weather conditions, Russian forces are intensifying their advance and trying to seize the initiative before the presidential elections, the latest ISW report says.

Ukrainian forces are consolidating their positions where they are not conducting counteroffensives.

Russian troops are likely to launch offensive operations on many fronts during the most difficult weather conditions of the fall-winter season.

As the Ukrainian military has repeatedly pointed out, Russian troops are conducting offensive operations along the border of Kharkiv and Luhansk regions, near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, and conduct continuous ground attacks in the western part of Zaporizhzhia region.

The current pace of fighting along the entire front line in Ukraine is generally in line with ISW's assessment. Russian forces have been trying to regain the initiative on the battlefield since at least mid-November 2023.

Recent official statements by the Ukrainian military also indicate that Russian forces have succeeded in seizing the initiative.

Ukrainian troops hold the initiative in key areas of southern Ukraine, evidenced by constant counterattacks in the west of the Zaporizhzhia region, and a steady, larger-than-usual Ukrainian presence on the eastern shore of Kherson region.

The Russian command sought to cause a culmination of the Ukrainian counteroffensive or to make sure that Ukrainian forces would not be able to resume it early this winter.

However, the chronology of events suggests that Kyiv decided to significantly reduce its counteroffensive operations on its own initiative even before the Russian offensive began.

It remains unclear whether the current Russian offensive operations will create the conditions for Russian troops to achieve operationally significant success in the near future.

At the Russian troops are not accumulating unused reserves to prepare for larger-scale winter operations.

Ukrainian forces seem to be using this period of difficult weather conditions and ongoing Russian offensive operations to create and strengthen defensive positions in areas of the front where they are not conducting counteroffensive operations. Thus, they are preserving manpower and resources for future offensives.

Key takeaways from the ISW report: 

• Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative prior to the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.
• Ukrainian forces, by contrast, appear to be using this period of challenging weather and ongoing Russian offensive operations to establish and consolidate defensive positions along the parts of the frontline where they have not been conducting counteroffensive operations, thereby conserving manpower and resources for future offensive efforts.
• The establishment of local defensive positions in areas Kyiv is not prioritizing for current or imminent counteroffensive operations is a prudent step and not an indication that Ukraine has abandoned all plans for future counteroffensives.
• The Kremlin-backed United Russia party is spearheading Russian President Vladimir Putin's nomination as an independent candidate in the 2024 Russian presidential election, and Putin's re-election campaign initiatives group includes people with a variety of backgrounds and constituencies to create the image of widespread support for Putin's presidency.