Russia starts more concerted campaign to destroy Ukrainian energy grid – UK intelligence

Russian forces have begun their more concerted campaign of air strikes to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure, the latest UK intelligence report says.

British analysts recalled that on the night of December 7, the Russian air force launched a powerful wave of strikes on Kyiv and central Ukraine using its fleet of heavy bombers for the first time since September 21.

These aircraft, most likely Tu-95s, launched at least 16 cruise missiles from their typical operational area over the Caspian Sea.

The missiles were most likely AS-23a KODIAK (NATO designation for X-101 and X-102 missiles). Russia was almost certainly stockpiling these missiles for use in its winter campaign, British analysts said.

"This was probably the beginning of a more coordinated campaign by Russia to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure," the statement said.

Most of these missiles were successfully intercepted by Ukrainian air defense.

"Despite the death of one civilian, the damage caused by the attack is minimal at this time."

British analysts noted that the ability of the Russian Black Sea Fleet to use its base in Novorossiysk to reload ships with cruise missiles is likely to be a significant factor in the fleet's operational effectiveness.

Traditionally, they reloaded their cruise missiles in Sevastopol. But now, it has become dangerous due to Ukrainian attacks. British intelligence believes that Russia will rely more on Novorossiysk.

At the end of October, they noted a long pause in Russia's use of long-range aircraft for missile strikes against Ukraine and attributed it to the accumulation of stockpiles for the winter.

Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat also claimed that it was possible that Russia could have paused its missile attacks on Ukraine to accumulate a certain number of missiles.

During the heating season last year, Russian forces launched over 1,200 missiles and drones at key energy facilities. Over 250 of them hit the target and damaged 43% of the main power grids. All thermal and hydroelectric power plants also suffered severe damage.

Yet analysts and experts believe that Russian forces cannot leave Ukrainians without electricity this winter. However, the military warns that Russia may be preparing for attacks by using Shahed drones to track Ukraine's air defense movement.

Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko also believes that the Russian army is probably waiting for a steady drop in temperature and worsening weather conditions in order to strike again at Ukraine's energy grid.