ISW: Russian troops advance in several locations near Avdiivka

In the past day, Russian forces conducted offensive operations near Avdiivka, confirming their advance, Rubryka reports, citing the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Footage published on November 28 and geolocated on December 2 shows that Russian forces have moved west of the railway, north of Stepanove (3 km northwest of Avdiivka).

Additional geolocation images, published on December 2, indicate that Russian forces have advanced southwest of Pervomaiske (10 km southwest of Avdiivka).

Russian military bloggers claimed on December 2 and 3 that Russian forces advanced south and southeast of Stepanove. Some asserted a movement of Russian troops within 300 meters of the settlement.

They also claimed on December 2 and 3 that Russian forces moved south of Novokalynove (13 km north-northeast of Avdiivka) and west of Krasnohorivka (5 km northwest of Avdiivka) on the northern flank of Avdiivka, as well as on the southern flank near Pervomaiske and Severne (6 km west of Avdiivka).

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked:

• East of Novobakhmutivka (9 km northwest of Avdiivka) and Novokalynove.
• South of Tonenke (5 km west of Avdiivka).
• Near Stepanove, Avdiivka, Severne, Pervomaiske.

On December 3, Russian sources claimed that Russian forces also attacked the northern flank from Kamianka (5 km north-northeast of Avdiivka) and the southern flank near the industrial zone southwest of Avdiivka.

A Russian military blogger stated on December 2 that Russian forces are conducting reconnaissance and regrouping to resume storming operations near the industrial zone southeast of Avdiivka.

Vitalii Barabash, head of the Avdiivka military administration, stated on December 3 that during the third wave of the Avdiivka assault, Russian forces opened two additional attack directions southeast of Avdiivka and from Spartak (4 km south of Avdiivka) to divert Ukrainian troops. Barabash also mentioned that Russian forces await improved weather conditions to use heavy equipment in assaults again.

Key ISW findings for December 3:

• Putin's decree from December 1 likely officially acknowledges the current strength of Russian forces rather than ordering an immediate increase.
• The vulnerability of Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense along the front line encourages Russian forces to rely more on remote strikes with guided bombs.
• Ukrainian officials have appealed to international organizations to investigate videos published on December 2 showing Russian forces killing unarmed Ukrainian soldiers who surrendered.
• Russian forces conducted a series of rocket and drone strikes on the night of December 2-3.
• The Russian government will likely continue attempts to censor relatives of mobilized Russian service members on social media, fearing potential negative impacts on Putin's yet unannounced presidential campaign in 2024.
• A well-known Russian military blogger claimed to have conducted a "master class" for press and communication personnel in the Russian state defense conglomerate "Rostec," likely to support efforts allowing the Russian government to normalize the war without direct Kremlin involvement.
• Russian forces advanced on the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk, in the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia region border area, in the western Zaporizhzhia region, and advanced in the Avdiivka area.
• Russia continues to use the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) to instill Russian nationalism in Russian children and, in the long term, shape power.
• Russian occupation officials continue to strengthen Kremlin-backed "United Russia" party support in occupied Ukraine ahead of the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.
• ISW believes adverse weather conditions continue to slow down combat operations on both the Ukrainian Armed Forces' and Russian Army's sides.

As a reminder, during the past day on December 3, the Ukrainian Armed Forces eliminated 770 more Russian occupiers. Since the full-scale invasion, the Russian losses have reached around 332,810 personnel.