Russia set to gain control of Avdiivka by year’s end – Estonian intelligence

The Intelligence Center of the Estonian Defense Forces stated that in the coming weeks, the Russian Federation will continue to maintain the intensity of hostilities to capture the city of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region by the end of this year.

The head of the intelligence center of the Estonian Defense Forces, Ants Kiviselg, reported this, according to ERR.

According to intelligence data, the occupying forces of the Russian Federation achieved some success in the Avdiivka area at the cost of heavy losses, which was facilitated by relatively dry weather. Still, Ukraine's armed forces organized resistance on an echelon defense line.

"However, despite the loss, the Russian Federation is likely to continue its offensive activity at the current intensity in the coming weeks with the intention of probably achieving full control of Avdiivka by the end of this year," the colonel said.

It is noted that the Ukrainian army mostly held positions thanks to long-range means of destruction in the form of drones and artillery, as well as minefields, thanks to which the losses of the Russian army in equipment can be compared with the indicators of previous weeks.

In addition, Estonian analysts assume that the Russian forces will increase the pressure in the Kupiansk region as they try to achieve a result that could be demonstrated as a significant success.

Estonian intelligence indicates that in this way, Moscow would be able to find justification for the continuation of aggression and the need to completely capture the Luhansk and Donetsk regions to secure a land corridor to Crimea. In addition, Russian troops are trying to restrain Ukraine's armed forces to reduce their pressure on other areas of the front.

Additionally, the summary mentions that Ukrainian defenders are currently conducting raids in the Kherson region to establish new bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River. The fog and low cloud cover in this area have proved advantageous for their river crossings. On the other hand, the Russian Federation has been compensating for their ground forces' weaknesses in this region by utilizing their own aviation.

For reference:

As reported according to Oleksandr Shtupun, spokesman for the Defense Forces of the Tavria Region, as of October 29, the Russians have lost 6,500 soldiers since the start of the offensive on Avdiivka.

Estonia began providing military aid to Ukraine even before the beginning of the Russian Federation's large-scale war against Ukraine, which affected the course of hostilities in the first weeks of the war. The government of Estonia provided military aid worth more than 400 million euros, which is more than 1% of Estonia's GDP. Currently, Estonia has already provided Ukraine with 16 packages of military aid.