Russia accumulating artillery shells to prepare for new offensive – Estonian intelligence

Estonian intelligence states Russia currently has artillery shells for a year of active hostilities in Ukraine, and the intensification of its forces in the areas of Avdiivka and Kupiansk may indicate the preparation of a new offensive.

Avdiivka-Marinka and Kupyansk-Lyman are the main directions for Russia to attack. If there were recorded 20-40 attacks per day in the summer, now, on average, 76 attacks per day occur in the areas.

Estonian intelligence believes that Russia calls these actions active defence, probably masking the current unsuccessful offensive actions, to cover the preparation of a new offensive.

I must admit that the actions taken by Russia in the east and northeast may lead to the fact that in the coming weeks the Russian army will try to develop success, send additional forces there and go on the offensive on that sector of the front, Ants Kiviselg, head of the defence intelligence centre, said.

Judging by the latest 350,000 artillery shells shipment from North Korea, this is a significant replenishment of warehouses since Russia had only about four million shells.

If we have seen that Russia fires about 10,000 shells in one day, then the amount of ammunition that North Korea sent should be enough for a month and a half, Kiviselg reflects.

The official also admits that Russia has finished preparing attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and they can be expected "in the coming weeks or a month".

Earlier this week, UK intelligence stated that Russia has launched a coordinated offensive on several fronts in the east of Ukraine, but expressed doubt that it would achieve its goals.