Putin and Russia shift rhetoric on offensive in Avdiivka, lowering expectations of advance – ISW

Specialists of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have noticed that the Russians, particularly their President Vladimir Putin, have changed their rhetoric regarding the offensive of the Russian aggressors on Avdiivka and are "reducing expectations" about the invaders' advance.

ISW reported this.

Experts note that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may be trying to reduce expectations of a significant advance of Russian troops around Avdiivka in the Donetsk region.

In an interview with Russian state television, Putin said that Russian troops are conducting "active defense" on the Avdiivka, Kupiansk, and Zaporizhzhia fronts.

According to experts, Putin's characterization of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka as "active defense" and not "active hostilities" may be an attempt to reduce expectations of a significant Russian advance.

"Russian forces are unlikely to make significant breakthroughs or cut off Ukrainian forces in the settlement in the near term, and potential advances at scale would likely require a significant and protracted commitment of personnel and materiel," the report said.

According to ISW, the Russian information space as a whole is also holding back its initial optimism about the prospects for Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka.

The review notes that Russian forces continued offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka on October 15 but have not made further progress amid a likely slowdown in Russian operations in the area.

Both Ukrainian military observers and Russian sources said that Russian forces did not achieve the desired breakthrough and faced heavy casualties and a likely slower-than-expected pace of advance.

However, Russian forces are likely to continue offensive operations at this reduced pace in the near term and remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the area, although they are unlikely to achieve a decisive breakthrough or encirclement of Avdiivka.

Analysts also point out that the decrease in the pace of Russian offensive operations may result from a temporary adjustment to the tactical situation, and the invaders may intensify their attempts to surround Avdiivka in the coming days.

ISW Key Findings for October 15:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin may be trying to temper expectations of significant Russian advances around Avdiivka in the Donetsk region.
• The Russian information space writ large is also metering its initial optimism about the prospects of Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations aimed at encircling Avdiivka on October 15 but have yet to make further gains amid a likely decreasing tempo of Russian operations in the area.
• Russian forces will likely continue offensive operations at this decreased tempo in the near term, however, and will remain a threat to Ukrainian forces in the area despite being unlikely to achieve a decisive breakthrough or encircle Avdiivka.
• A prominent Russian milblogger and frontline unit commander complained that Russian military leadership is uninterested in battalion-level problems, supplementing other Russian milblogger complaints about general problems in the Russian military.
• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in the western Zaporizhzhia region on October 15 and slightly advanced south of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia region border area, and the western Zaporizhzhia region on October 15 and advanced in some areas.
• A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have "significant" reserves comprised of new divisions currently located in rear areas. However, these formations are highly unlikely to be fully staffed at this time.
• The Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) is sending a reportedly Kremlin-affiliated priest to Crimea, likely as part of continued Russian efforts to persecute religious communities in occupied Ukraine.

For reference:

According to Bild military analyst Julian Ripke, Russian troops, trying to surround Avdiivka, went on the offensive in columns of more than 100 pieces of equipment: tanks, armored personnel carriers, infantry armored vehicles, and trucks. However, they came under artillery and ATGM fire and were pushed back.

According to the analyst's assessment, Ukrainian troops killed more than 200 Russian invaders and destroyed more than 60 tanks and armored personnel carriers.

As Ripke noted, the Russians planned to create a large cauldron by bypassing Avdiivka from the west. To do this, they wanted to capture the villages of Severne, Stepove, and Berdychi.

However, Ukraine's armed forces were able to stop the offensive of the occupiers near Severne and on the railway line in Stepove. According to the analyst, Russian troops have no intention of abandoning the offensive on Avdiivka despite the loss.

It should be noted that since the beginning of last week, the Russian occupiers intensified their offensive on Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. The enemy is heavily shelling the city and neighboring settlements. The situation in the city remains tense.

According to the General Staff, in the Avdiivka area last week, Russian troops made more than 100 unsuccessful attempts to dislodge units of Ukraine's armed forces from their occupied positions in the areas east of Stepove, Lastochkine, Tonenke, Keramik, Severne, Nevelske, Netaylovo, and Pervomaiske of Donetsk region.

As reported, on the morning of Monday, October 16, Russian losses in the war in Ukraine amounted to 860 occupiers. The total number of casualties of the Russian army since the beginning of the invasion is 288,630 soldiers. In addition, Ukrainian defenders destroyed 17 tanks, 44 artillery systems, an enemy plane, and a helicopter.