Russian offensive on Avdiivka fails – ISW

Russian attempts to attack Avdiivka in the Donetsk region failed over the past day, as their offensive could turn into a "fight against a concrete wall," according to the Institute for the Study of War.

American analysts say Moscow is trying to show off its offensive operations around Avdiivka and other local actions to show that it has seized the tactical initiative in Ukraine.

Russian sources claimed enemy troops continued attacking areas north and south of Avdiivka. Geolocation images published on October 12 and 13 indicate that Russian forces advanced to the south of Krasnohorivka (5 km north of Avdiivka) and the southeast of Pervomaiske (11 km southwest of Avdiivka).

Russian sources also published contradictory reports about control of the Avdiivka Coke Plant, Europe's largest chemical facility. ISW found no evidence that Russian forces were in control.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops repelled about 20 enemy attacks in Avdiivka and 100 all over the frontline, according to the latest AFU GenStaff report.

A Russian volunteer also said that worn-out barrels reduce the accuracy of Russian artillery near Avdiivka. ISW has previously observed complaints about Russian artillery from local sources.

He also assessed that Russian forces might "squeeze the Ukrainian perimeter" by capturing less fortified Ukrainian territory near Avdiivka. However, he expressed concerns that Russian generals might misinterpret these limited advances and attempt to accelerate their offensive efforts on Avdiivka.

The volunteer noted that such a misinterpretation could lead to Russian forces "banging against concrete fortifications" until they run out of resources.

Key takeaways:

• The ongoing Russian offensive operations in the Avdiivka region suffered setbacks throughout the entire city on October 13.
• Russian military commands limit discussions of offensive operations around Avdiivka in the information space, likely attempting to adapt to previous information shocks and control any narratives reflected in the Russian information space regarding these operations.
• The Kremlin is likely trying to shape Russian offensive operations around Avdiivka and other local efforts, after which Russian forces may seize the operational initiative in Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive actions near Bakhmut and in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region.
• Russian forces continue to destroy critical infrastructure objects in Ukraine using drones and missiles while also carrying out localized cross-border raids.
• A Ukrainian military intelligence officer concluded that Russian forces are attempting to arm newly created military formations.