ISW: Ukrainian military achieves tactical wins in west Zaporizhzhia region
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The Ukrainian Defense Forces managed to achieve tactically significant successes in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region; Ukraine's defenders have been conducting regular ground attacks in the direction of Robotyne for several weeks.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported this.
American experts note that Ukrainian troops have been conducting regular ground attacks in the direction of Robotyne for several weeks as part of operations aimed at weakening Russian defenses.
According to the report, the ability of the Defense Forces to advance to the outskirts of Robotyne, which Russian forces have spent considerable effort, time, and resources defending, remains significant, even if Ukrainian gains are currently limited.
Analysts note that Ukrainian forces achieved tactically significant successes in the western part of the Zaporizhzhia region against the background of the continuation of counteroffensive operations on at least three areas of the front on August 11.
Geolocation data published on August 11 confirmed that Ukrainian troops have reached the northern outskirts of Robotyne (10 km south of Orikhiv) in the west of the Zaporizhzhia region. However, as American experts emphasize, the permanence and duration of these positions are currently unclear.
In addition, geolocation footage published on August 11 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced to Urozhaine (9 km south of Velika Novosilka) along the border of Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.
According to experts, Ukrainian counteroffensive operations seem to force the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending the west of the Zaporizhzhia region. This indicates that Ukrainian efforts there can significantly weaken Russian defenses.
Experts also point out that the Russian practice of conducting lateral redeployments in key areas of the front will likely further weaken the Russian defensive lines.
These flanking reinforcements are likely to disrupt Russian offensive and defensive operations in the sectors from which they came. And this threatens the rapid degradation of the forces that the Russian military uses as reinforcements.
In addition, it is noted that Russia does not appear to have significant available forces that it could bring in for reinforcements without jeopardizing other sectors of the front.
And the redeployment of Russian troops in a lateral direction will probably increase the probability that the Russians will be forced to retreat to prepared defensive positions without significant support in the event of a Ukrainian breakthrough.
"The further degradation of defending Russian forces thus creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive," the experts conclude.
In turn, Ukrainian counteroffensive operations have drawn elite Russian units and units to the Bakhmut front and continue to keep them there.
Russian troops also used a significant number of forces for local offensive operations in the Kupiansk and Svatovo region, which also aimed to draw Ukrainian troops away from the areas of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
"Even if the Russian command determines to end localized offensive pushes in these areas it would likely take some time for Russian forces to lower the tempo of their operations and withdraw forces for lateral redeployments without opening up areas of the front to successful Ukrainian counterattacks. The limited Russian lateral redeployment of elements of the 7th VDV Division from the left bank of Kherson Oblast in June appears to have set conditions that allowed Ukrainian forces to more freely operate in the area, and Ukrainian forces will likely similarly exploit weakened Russian groupings in other areas of the front where they are actively conducting offensive operations in the event of further Russian movements," the review emphasized.
On the other hand, analysts say, Ukrainian forces have reserves that allow them to rotate units rather than relying on the redeployment of units that conduct defensive and offensive operations to other areas of the front without rest.
In their opinion, Ukrainian troops can probably maintain the necessary combat potential necessary for:
- continued degradation of Russian forces defending themselves in the south of Ukraine and on the Bakhmut front,
- at the same time restraining the advance of the Russians along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line.
ISW Key Findings for August 11:
- Ukrainian forces made tactically significant advances in western Zaporizhzhia region and reached the outskirts of Robotyne amid continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 11.
- Ukrainian counteroffensive operations appear to force the Russian military to laterally redeploy Russian forces defending in the western Zaporizhzhia region, indicating that the Ukrainian effort there may significantly degrade Russian defenses.
- Russia's necessary practice of conducting lateral redeployments to key sectors of the front will likely further weaken Russian defensive lines in the aggregate, as both Russian and Ukrainian operations are fixing Russian units to certain sectors of the front.
- The further degradation of defending Russian forces creates opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive.
- Russian forces appear to be intensifying offensive operations northeast of Kupiansk, likely to draw Ukrainian forces away from more operationally significant areas of the front.
- Russian forces conducted another series of missile strikes in Ukraine on August 11 and targeted a Ukrainian airfield for the second time in the last week.
- Russian sources claimed that the Wagner PMC appears to be maintaining a presence at its facilities in Belarus, though the status of its rumored withdrawal to Russian remains unclear.
- The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs is struggling with significant personnel shortages, especially in occupied territories in Ukraine, amid a broader power shift between other Russian internal security organs.
- The Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense are likely attempting to deflect blame for Ukrainian shelling in Russian border areas onto mid-level officers.
- Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupiansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhzhia region area on August 11 and advanced in some areas.
- Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 11. They advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhzhia region border area and western Zaporizhzhia region.
- The Russian defense industrial base has begun producing "Geran-2" drones, a modified version of the Iranian-produced Shahed-131/136 drone that will likely enable Russia's ability to maintain or potentially increase the frequency of Russia's drone strikes on Ukraine.
- Russian occupation authorities are taking steps to make the upcoming regional elections in the Russian-occupied territories appear to be fair and competitive.
