Wagner PMC faces challenges in controlling withdrawal from Bakhmut – ISW

In the fortress city of Bakhmut, Donetsk region, the Wagner Private Military Company mercenaries will not be able to withdraw without losses due to successful counterattacks of Ukraine's armed forces.

This is stated in the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) report.

Analysts believe that the mercenaries, in the act of departing, will impede units of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in preparing for the counteroffensive planned by Ukraine.

According to their estimates, Wagner PMC is unlikely to be able to organize a proper defense or consolidate recent successes in Bakhmut sufficient to prevent Ukrainian counterattacks.

It is emphasized that the Ukrainian military is in Khromovo and Ivanivske and is also fighting with the occupiers in Bakhmut and its surroundings. Ukrainian artillery is also hitting Russian forces in and around Bakhmut.

"Wagner units have shown poor coordination with Russian conventional forces, other irregular formations subordinated to the Russian MoD, and the Russian military command—factors that would hinder a smooth relief-in-place operation. The Russian military command is unlikely to generate sufficient forces to relieve Wagner in Bakhmut and holds its flanks within the window Prigozhin [the head of Wagner PMC – ed.] has announced without redeploying Russian forces from other areas," – ISW analysts emphasize.

What is happening in Bakhmut

It should be noted that the day before, on May 20, the head of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, announced that his mercenaries seemed to have complete control over Bakhmut.

According to British intelligence, in the last four days, the Russian Federation transferred several battalions of invaders to strengthen the Bakhmut front. Such steps of the Russian Federation may indicate an attempt to declare at least some success at the front.

The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine explained that the transfer of reserves by the enemy to Bakhmut indicates the failure of their offensive actions.