ISW: putin thinks he’ll eventually win over Ukraine

russian president vladimir putin is convinced that he'll eventually be able to win over Ukraine, experts of the Institute for the Study of War believe.

"Neither Ukraine nor the West has persuaded him that he must consider accepting any sort of off-ramp or compromise settlement. putin instead remains focused on achieving his initial war aims through protracted conflict in which he wins either by imposing his will on Ukraine by force or by breaking Ukraine's will following the West's abandonment of Kyiv," the ISW reported.

The institute emphasized that, even though putin failed to "freeze" Ukraine and Europe in the winter, and the russian winter-spring offensive is approaching its climax, he continues to make it clear by words and deeds that he is not ready to abandon his maximalist goals for Ukraine.

"The continuing of russian offensive operations around Bakhmut and Avdiivka, as well as along the Luhansk and western Donetsk front lines, is a further indicator that putin remains committed to victory in a protracted war whose outcome is determined in large part by military realities on the ground," the report said.

ISW analysts note that putin is currently not putting forward any conditions for negotiations other than a complete victory for russia.

"putin is nevertheless putting no terms for negotiation on the table now other than russia's total success. He is not taking the military measures that would be prudent were he serious about seeking some negotiated off-ramp or compromise settlement. The current front lines would set highly favorable conditions for renewed russian invasions if putin were offering to accept them as a ceasefire boundary—but he clearly is unwilling to do so," experts say.

Thus, ISW emphasizes the choice now facing Ukraine and its Western partners is relatively simple.

"The choices before Ukraine and its Western backers at this time are thus relatively straightforward. Ukraine can unilaterally cease fighting even as russian attacks by ground and air continue, which would lead to disastrous defeat (and which almost no one is advocating). Ukrainian forces can continue fighting in a very constrained way seeking only to hold what they now have, which will encourage putin to continue his efforts to pursue outright military victory. Or they can launch successive counter-offensive operations with the twin aims of persuading putin to accept a negotiated compromise or of creating military realities sufficiently favorable to Ukraine that Kyiv and its Western allies can then effectively freeze the conflict on their own regardless of putin's decisions. 

"Those are the options facing Ukraine and the West as long as putin continues to believe that he can impose his will by force of russian arms over however long a period he is willing to fight," the analysts summarize.