US warns Kyiv to change trajectory of war – WP

With the first anniversary of russia's invasion of Ukraine approaching, US officials informed the Ukrainian president's office that a pivotal moment to change the course of the war was approaching, the Washington Post reports.

"The war in recent months has become a slow grind in eastern Ukraine, with neither side gaining the upper hand," the publication says. "Biden officials believe the critical juncture will come this spring when russia is expected to launch an offensive, and Ukraine mounts a counteroffensive in an effort to reclaim lost territory."

This raises the pressure on the Ukrainian armed forces to make significant gains on the battlefield while military aid support from the United States and its allies is still pouring in. The US officials fear that the support might not be bipartisan with the Republican-led House and Senate. "We will continue to try to impress upon them that we can't do anything and everything forever," one senior administration official told the WP, referring to Ukraine's leaders. 

The critical nature of the next few months has already been directly notified to Kyiv by Biden's high-ranking officials, says the Washinton Post.

The following assumptions were made by deputy national security adviser Jon Finer, deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman, and undersecretary of defense Colin Kahl, all of whom visited Ukraine last month.

In addition, a week before the visit of these officials, CIA Director William Burns also visited Ukraine. He informed the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, about russia's military plans for the coming months and emphasized the urgency of the moment.

The Biden administration is also working with Congress to approve another $10 billion in direct budget aid to Kyiv. It is expected to announce another major military aid package next week and introduce new sanctions against the kremlin around the same time.

On the eve of the anniversary of the full-scale war, the West is trying to send a signal to the russian dictator, putin, that support for Ukraine is not weakening. However, some analysts warn that neither russia nor Ukraine will gain a decisive military advantage in the foreseeable future.

Biden and his top aides say they are determined to support Ukraine as long and as fully as possible. But they warn that the political course could become tougher after Ukraine exhausts the current congressional aid package, which could happen as early as this summer.

At the same time, according to the publication, there is hidden tension in the West about how Ukraine should focus its resources in the coming months.

They note that Ukraine spent considerable resources and troops defending Bakhmut in the east of Donbas for many months. But American military analysts are convinced that simultaneously defending Bakhmut and launching a spring counteroffensive to return the territories temporarily occupied by russia is unrealistic.

The Biden administration is also convinced that russia's capture of Bakhmut "will not result in any significant strategic shift in the battlefield. russians will try to claim it as such, [but] it's a dot on the map for which they have expended an extraordinary amount of blood and treasure." The United States considers the de-occupation of lands more important.

US officials believe that if Ukraine continues to fight wherever russia sends troops, it will work in moscow's favor. Therefore, they called on Ukraine to determine priorities in choosing the time and conducting the spring counteroffensive. Especially at a time when the USA and Europe are training Ukrainian fighters to use the most sophisticated weapons that are already appearing on the battlefield.

In addition, American intelligence officers believe that the recapture of the well-fortified Crimean peninsula is beyond the power of the Ukrainian army.

At the same time, Biden's aides say they are sticking to the best course of action: to allow Ukraine to regain as much territory as possible in the coming months before sitting down with putin at the negotiating table.