kremlin launching new disinformation campaign to undermine support for Ukraine – ISW

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) analyzed the kremlin's information campaigns about the threat to russia's security from Western weapons aimed at deterring or slowing down support for Ukraine.

ISW reports that russia has regained the ability to conduct discrete information campaigns in support of specific strategic objectives and tailor those campaigns to mitigate battlefield failures and create the conditions for future planned operations.

Analysts recalled the manipulations resorted to by the russian authorities, particularly the russian president, to restrain or slow down "the West's provision of material support to Ukraine."

"These russian information campaigns have been continuous in their pursuit of the common aim of inhibiting Western support for Ukraine regardless of battlefield conditions," experts note.

In their opinion, russia is creating an information space in preparation for offensive operations to prevent Ukraine from retaining the initiative on the battlefield or preparing for an offensive.

russia also uses information campaigns to dissuade the West from supporting Ukraine's counteroffensive efforts and exploiting russian military failures.

In addition, russia uses the narrative that Ukraine is incapable of defeating russia due to the power imbalance between the two states to mitigate serious russian failures or russia's inability to achieve rapid success in major offensive operations.

The institute also recalled russia's promotion of the "second army of the world" narrative, as well as the reformatting of information operations after the failures on the battlefield. In addition, analysts pointed to the moment when the russian authorities threatened the risk of nuclear escalation.

The report says, "It is now clear that the russian information campaign centering on peace negotiations that intensified in December 2022 was aimed — among other things — at delaying the provision of Western tanks and other advanced equipment essential for the continuation of Ukrainian mechanized counteroffensives in order to set conditions for russia's own planned offensives."

Analysts also assure that russia continues to make efforts to shape public opinion about the West providing Ukraine with long-range weapons and tanks, spreading the narrative that Ukraine will deliberately threaten russia with these weapons instead of first paying attention to the liberation of its territories occupied by russia.

kremlin officials continue to support the narrative that the West's transfer of long-range precision missile systems and Leopard tanks poses some new threat to russian security.

The report concludes that the purpose of this russian information campaign is twofold: first, to delay the arrival of Western tanks for as long as possible to delay the renewal of Ukrainian counteroffensives and buy time for russia's own offensive operations, and second, to disrupt the development of a coherent Western approach to the complete transition of Ukraine to Western weapons systems — something the West will eventually be forced to do, as it has exhausted its stockpiles of Soviet-era weapons and cannot produce or buy new ones.

Experts note that the Kremlin is reviving the narrative of exaggerating russian victories at the front, given the ongoing offensives on Bakhmut and Lyman.

ISW suggests the Kremlin is also developing other narratives, with nationalist officials issuing "nuclear threats" in response to recent Western promises of arms and arms transfers.

Analysts believe that all these information campaigns will support the strategic goals of the Kremlin aimed at a split between the West and Ukraine, deterring or delaying the provision of Western material resources and the general undermining of Western support for Ukraine and the cohesion of the Western coalition.

"putin is working to restore his capabilities in this area and is achieving limited but important successes, especially when he can shape information campaigns that resonate with discussions and fears that are already salient in the West," the institute's report says.