Ukraine’s army bought time in Bakhmut, but will likely withdraw – Estonian intelligence

By holding Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces bought time to create new lines of defense, so they will most likely leave the city shortly, says the commander of the Intelligence Center of the Estonian Defense Forces, Colonel Margo Grosberg.

Currently, the Armed Forces of Ukraine still hold the city, although all roads in the town from the north, east, and south are cut off, and the only way out of the city is from the west, Grosbreg said at a press conference of the Ministry of Defense of Estonia.

He noted that Bakhmut was the main target of russian forces.

"By holding Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces bought time to create new defense lines to protect other areas and settlements, such as Kramatorsk and Slovyansk," the colonel said. "In the coming weeks, Ukrainian forces may leave Bakhmut. Everything depends on the degree of readiness of the new defensive lines. At some point, it will be unwise to spend resources on maintaining the city."

Grosberg said that Bakhmut getting under russian control would not lead to any strategic changes at the front but would be a psychological and moral victory for russia, necessary for information propaganda.

"Achieving success and any offensive activity is obviously significant for the russian armed forces. They need to succeed in some directions, make a breakthrough and show some victories," Grosberg said.

He added that new arms shipments to Ukraine would put even more pressure on russian forces, which could lead to an increase in local attacks in the next few weeks.

According to Grosberg, russia is also creating new lines of defense. "Especially in the most dangerous direction for them, i.e., from the Zaporizhzhia region towards Melitopol," the colonel said.

Grosberg also reported that the first batch of mobilized soldiers, who will now be sent to the borders of Ukraine, completed their training in belarus. The much-discussed second wave of mobilization has not yet begun, but the first wave of mobilization has not yet been declared complete either.

"The mobilization is still going on, but on a much smaller scale," he explained. "If the ratio of forces in terms of personnel at the front is approximately one to one, then, as I have repeatedly noted, for a successful offensive operation, this ratio should be three to one."

As Rubryka reported, CIA Chief William Burns believes the next six months will be crucial for the outcome of russia's war. 

Also, Ukrainian intelligence expects a shakeup at the front line in the coming weeks. The intensity of fighting in the east of Ukraine is an attempt to implement the task set by the russian president to capture the eastern regions of Ukraine, says Andrii Yusov, a representative of the Defense Intelligence Directorate at the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.